Mozambique Channel: Tropical Storm Guambe tracks south southeastward in Mozambique Channel as of early Feb. 18. No landfall projected.

Event

Tropical Storm Guambe has formed off of Mozambique coast and is tracking south-southeastward in the Mozambique Channel as of early Feb. 18. As of late Feb. 17, the system's center of circulation was approximately 280 km (451 miles) west of Europa Island. Forecast models indicate the system will turn and move in a southwest direction, morning Feb. 18, strengthen into a tropical cyclone and make a close approach to Inharrime in southern Mozambique evening Feb. 19. The system will then move in a southward direction and make a turn southeastwards towards the Indian Ocean. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and some changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Warnings
Authorities will likely issue warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
Heavy rainfall and strong winds will likely occur in southern parts of Mozambique and eSwatini through at least Feb. 21. Severe weather is also likely in southern parts of Madagascar. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, and rivers, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by Harold will likely result in coastal flooding. Abnormally high tides are possible. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, the storm will produce damaging wind gusts. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are likely.

Transport and Infrastructure
Inclement weather associated with the storm is likely to trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. The weather system will further exacerbate transportation disruptions already occurring in areas under restrictions due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) activity. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges or roadways impassable, further impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports. Power outages are likely in areas that experience severe weather. Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Heed the instructions of authorities as the storm approaches. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia
Meteo Madagascar