Nepal: Political leaders announce plans for protests through Feb. 27; additional actions likely /update 2

Event

A dissident faction of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) led by chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has announced additional protests across Nepal through at least Feb. 27. Further unannounced protests by civil organizations as well as political parties such as the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) and the Nepali Congress (NC) party are likely in the coming weeks. Planned events by the dissident NCP supporters include:

• Feb. 17-24: Protests in all districts

• Feb. 18: Human chain protest in Tundikhel ground, Kathmandu, 1600-1700

• Feb. 19: Protests in all wards, along with the launch of a nationwide signature campaign planned through Feb. 27

• Feb. 20: Rally in Kathmandu

• Feb. 21: Nationwide demonstrations by civil organizations for women's rights

• Feb. 22: Nationwide rallies at district headquarters by Dalit groups, including at Kathmandu Valley

• Feb. 23: Nationwide protests by a coalition of marginalized groups such as tribals and religious minorities

• Feb. 24: Rally in Chitwan District

• Feb. 26: Youth rally in Kathmandu by dissident NCP faction

Turnout at the various demonstrations will vary significantly by location; larger demonstrations in Kathmandu will likely involve thousands of people. Participation in the hundreds is likely at most demonstrations in various district headquarters. Organizers do not typically publicize protest details in advance; rally venues and timings are subject to change at short notice.

Security forces are on high alert and have deployed to guard sensitive sites, such as the residences of the prime minister and president. Police will almost certainly deploy to monitor large demonstrations, especially in Kathmandu. Clashes between police and protesters could occur; authorities may try to break up more disruptive rallies. Police have dispersed protests with water cannon and arrested protesters during some recent rallies. Localized transport disruptions are likely near well-attended demonstrations. Business disruptions are also possible, especially if violence occurs.

Context

Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli, who is facing pressure to resign from opposing factions within his own NCP, as well as opposition parties and civil groups, obtained presidential assent to dissolve parliament Dec. 20. The move, which came hours after several lawmakers filed a no-confidence motion against his government, is facing legal challenges and public protest for inadequate grounds. Political protests will likely continue in the medium term and could result in sporadic and localized violence.

Advice

Avoid protests due to possible clashes. If violence breaks out nearby, take shelter in a secure, non-governmental building. Follow all security personnel instructions. Monitor trusted local news sources, as demonstrators may not announce protests in advance. Allow additional travel time near demonstrations. Confirm business appointments and transport reservations in advance.