08 Feb 2021 | 06:29 PM UTC
Russia: Protests by supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny likely in Moscow Feb. 12
Opposition activists likely to protest in Moscow, Russia, Feb. 12; increased security, localized disruptions, and isolated clashes likely.
Event
Protests by supporters of Alexei Navalny are possible in Moscow Feb. 12, when the Russian opposition figure is scheduled to appear in court once more on charges of defaming a World War II veteran. Activists could attempt to gather at the Babushkinsky District Court building, where the trial is taking place. A heavy police presence will almost certainly deploy at and around the courthouse, and related crowd-control measures, including possible movement restrictions, could prompt localized transport disruptions. Furthermore, current COVID-19 measures in Russia restrict public gatherings.
Police will probably move to disperse any protests and could react forcibly, potentially resorting to the use of tear gas and baton charges if resisted. While bystanders are unlikely to be targeted in any violence, they would face a significant indirect physical threat. Hundreds of protesters were detained during a related court hearing Feb. 2.
Context
Navalny’s supporters claim that the charges are politically motivated and are demanding his immediate release. Thousands of people have attended protests since he was arrested Jan. 17 after returning to Russia; the largest demonstrations took place in cities nationwide Jan. 23 and 31, during which security forces arrested thousands of participants. The authorities’ robust reaction to the previous demonstrations could deter activists from attending related gatherings Feb. 12.
Advice
Avoid any protests as a routine security precaution and to mitigate associated disruptions. Heed the instructions of security services and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Check public transport schedules and local traffic conditions for disruptions in the vicinity of the Babushkinsky court building Feb. 12.
