Russia: Supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny likely to protest in Moscow and other cities nationwide through at least Feb. 6

Event

Protests and demonstrations are likely in major Russian cities over the coming days in reaction to a Feb. 2 verdict by Moscow's Simonovky District Court to revoke Alexei Navalny's suspended sentence and send the opposition leader to prison for 3.5 years. Human rights activists and critics of Navalny's arrest assert the decision was politically motivated and have been demanding his immediate release. Following the sentencing, Navalny supporters, who had been gathered at the courthouse for much of the day, called for immediate demonstrations in Moscow’s Manezhnaya Square. Related protests are likely in major cities across the country.

A heavy police presence has already been deployed at and around the courthouse. A similar presence is likely near Manezhnaya Square. Security forces may use riot-control measures, including tear gas and baton charges, to disperse any gatherings that may materialize. Mass arrests are possible. Crowd-control measures, including possible movement restrictions, could prompt localized transport disruptions. Violent clashes between police and protesters are likely; while bystanders are unlikely to be directly targeted, they would face a significant indirect physical threat. Several thousand demonstrators have been arrested in related protests nationwide since Navalny's Jan. 17 return to Russia after undergoing medical treatment in Germany.

Advice

Avoid all protests as a routine security precaution and to mitigate associated disruptions. Heed the instructions of security services and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Check public transport schedules and local traffic conditions for disruptions in the vicinity of any potential demonstration venues, including the Simonovsky District Court and Manezhnaya Square in Moscow.