Sudan, Ethiopia: Tensions to remain high, clashes possible in Al-Fashqa region into March following allegations of cross-border incursion by Ethiopian forces /update 1

Event

Tensions will remain high between Sudan and Ethiopia, with additional armed clashes possible in the disputed Al-Fashqa region through at least early March, following Khartoum's allegations of an Ethiopian military incursion into Sudanese territory Feb. 14. The Sudanese government has warned Ethiopia to withdraw its troops from the area. Both sides have been reinforcing their military deployments in and around Al-Fashqa and have engaged in a number of cross-border clashes in recent weeks. Ethiopian officials have made no official comment regarding the alleged incursion. Further skirmishes, as well as localized escalations in violence, could occur without warning in or around the conflict zone.

Increased security and military presence are highly in and around the Al-Fashqa region. Localized transport and supply train disruptions are possible.

Context

The disputed Al-Fashqa region was controlled by Ethiopian forces for more than 30 years. Sudanese troops, however, moved into the area Dec. 16, 2020, after Ethiopian troops were redeployed to deal with the conflict in the Tigray region. Since then, both countries have been increasing their military presence and security posture along the shared border. In late 2020, a series of violent incidents and clashes took place along the border resulting in at least a dozen fatalities suffered by both countries. After an Ethiopian fighter jet allegedly entered Sudanese airspace, the Sudanese Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) implemented air traffic restrictions over the Al-Gedaref and Al-Fashqa regions. The tension at the border prompted talks on redrawing the territory between the two countries; however, the first round of discussions held in Khartoum on Dec. 22 ended without coming to an agreement after Ethiopia demanded Sudanese forces withdraw before resuming talks.

Advice

Consider avoiding nonessential travel to Al-Fashqa area until the situation stabilizes. If operating in the area, exercise extreme caution; carry proper identification at all times and heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider alternate methods for routing shipments in the vicinity of the conflict zone. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.