Nepal: Political demonstrations likely nationwide through at least mid March /update 4

Event

Demonstrations are likely throughout Nepal, especially in Kathmandu, through at least mid-March ahead of the parliament's planned reinstatement at 1600 March 7 following court orders. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli - under criticism from opposition parties and rival members of his own Nepal Communist Party (NCP) - will likely face a vote of no confidence. Rallies both for and against PM Oli are likely to continue in the coming weeks. The largest gatherings are likely in the Kathmandu Valley, including Bhaktapur, Kathmandu, and Lalitpur districts. Turnout at the various demonstrations will vary significantly by location; larger demonstrations in Kathmandu may involve thousands of people. Organizers do not typically publicize demonstration details in advance; gathering venues and timings are subject to change at short notice.

Security forces are on high alert and will almost certainly deploy to sensitive sites such as government buildings, political party offices, and rally venues, especially in Kathmandu. Clashes between police and activists could occur; authorities may try to break up more disruptive rallies. Clashes between supporters and detractors of Oli are also possible. Police have dispersed protests with water cannons and arrested protesters during some recent protests. Localized transport disruptions are likely near well-attended demonstrations. Business disruptions are also possible, especially if violence occurs.

Context

Political protests have occurred nationwide since PM Oli proposed to dissolve parliament hours after several lawmakers filed a no-confidence motion against his government in December 2020. The decision was revoked by the Supreme Court Feb. 23. The ruling NCP is also headed for a split between factions headed by PM Oli and party chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, placing its electoral status under legal scrutiny. Demonstrations are likely to continue in the medium term, with sporadic violence possible.

Advice

Avoid rallies due to possible clashes. If violence breaks out nearby, take shelter in a secure, non-governmental building. Follow all security personnel instructions. Monitor trusted local news sources, as organizers may not announce protests in advance. Allow additional travel time near demonstrations. Confirm business appointments and transport reservations in advance.