22 Apr 2021 | 08:57 AM UTC
Chad: Security situation likely to remain uncertain nationwide through at least early May /update 3
The security situation is likely to remain uncertain in Chad through at least early May. Further violence and rebel activity possible.
Event
The security situation in Chad will likely remain tense through at least early May following recent rebel activity and the death of President Idriss Deby Itno. Fighters from the group Le Front pour l'Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad (FACT) began marching on the nation's capital N'Djamena from bases in Libya in mid-April after initial results from Chad's April 11 presidential election showed that Deby had won a sixth term in office. The president died April 20 from wounds he received during fighting between rebel forces and the Chadian military.
Despite federal troops having repelled the rebels, parliament was dissolved following the president's death. A Transitional Military Council (TMC) headed by his son General Mahamat Idriss Deby took control of the government, a development that has drawn criticism from political opposition and international observers. The situation remains unstable. Unconfirmed reports suggest that a rift may be forming within the ranks of the military. Moreover, FACT leaders have threatened to march on N'Djamena once more to depose the younger Deby.
As a security measure, authorities closed the nation's air and land borders and imposed an 18:00-05:00 nationwide curfew immediately following the president's death. However, as of April 22, the borders have been reopened and the curfew scaled back by two hours to run 20:00-05:00 nightly. The TMC has encouraged public and private services to reopen.
A period of national mourning is in effect through at least May 4. Deby's funeral will take place in N'Djamena April 23 before his burial in his native Ennedi-Est region. Authorities will almost certainly maintain a very high security posture during the event.
A series of security advisories issued by several foreign embassies in Chad prior to the clashes between rebel and government forces remain in effect as of April 22. The US embassy's latest warning, issued April 21, noted that if US nationals decided to leave Chad, they should take advantage of commercial airlines. The embassy previously (April 17) ordered the departure of nonemergency US government employees from the US Embassy in N'Djamena. The US State Department advisory for Chad, as of April 21, is "do not travel." The US Embassy consular section remains closed until further notice. The Embassy of France in Chad issued a warning April 17 warning against travel outside of the capital. A further statement was issued April 20 advising French nationals to limit travel to essential movement only.
Chad's security environment could degrade further in the coming days depending on FACT activities and actions taken by the TMC. Rebel action could result in further clashes in the center and north of the country or in close proximity to the capital. Protests by opposition groups remain possible and public unions could call for strikes and stoppages to demonstrate against the actions of the TMC. The tightening of movement restrictions is also possible if the security situation deteriorates further in the coming days. Additional security patrols and checkpoints are likely in and on routes to and from the capital. Officials could also suspend communications in response to security assessments or incidents.
Advice
Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation until the situation stabilizes. Liaise with trusted contacts before travel to Chad or travel within Chad. Update and review contingency plans. Reconfirm the status of public transport before departure. Prepare for possible transportation and communications disruptions.
