Saudi Arabia: Additional drone and missile launches targeting southern cities remain highly likely through at least late May /update 1

Event

Al-Houthi rebels will likely continue to launch additional missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia's major cities, particularly in southern provinces, through at least late May. An increase in missile and drone attacks by the Al-Houthis often coincides with Saudi Arabia and its allies' airstrikes against the rebel group's targets in northern Yemen.

The attacks, or debris from the destroyed projectiles, could result in casualties and damage to both military and civilian interests. Localized disruptions to transport and business operations are possible near impact sites.

Context

The lack of objective sources covering the conflict between the Saudi-led coalition and Al-Houthi rebels makes it challenging to independently verify reports of longer-range weaponized drone and ballistic missile attacks or intercepts inside Saudi Arabia. Each side relies heavily on propaganda and misdirection in the media to shape the narrative to its policy objectives. As is often the case when reports of an alleged drone or ballistic missile attacks or intercepts emerge, neither Riyadh nor the Al-Houthi rebels provide much, if any, verifiable proof to support their respective claims.

The Al-Houthi rebels have demonstrated an intent to target major population centers in Saudi Arabia with weaponized drones and ballistic missiles. While their precise tactical capabilities are unclear, the rebel group claims to possess several short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) with ranges from 30 km (18 miles) to 1,000 km (620 miles). The group, with help from Iran, also claims to possess several indigenously produced drones with ranges from 15 km (9 miles) to 500 km (310 miles). Nevertheless, the Saudi military employs a wide array of air defense platforms and appears to have significantly mitigated the drone and ballistic missile threat in its southern border provinces; however, falling debris post-intercept remains a potentially lethal hazard.

Previous Al-Houthi cross-border attacks have resulted in civilian casualties; however, most are due to shorter-range mortar and rocket attacks that concentrate near areas within 10 km (6 miles) of the Saudi-Yemeni border.

Advice

If officials report incoming artillery fire or drone activity in the general vicinity, stay indoors away from windows and exterior walls; if possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Saudi Arabia's border provinces.