01 Nov 2024 | 09:01 AM UTC
Arabian Peninsula: Continued attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late November /update 15
Further attacks against vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through at least late November.
Further maritime incidents and associated disruptions are likely in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula through at least late November amid prevailing heightened tensions. Al-Houthi attacks decreased in September and October, with an average of three recorded incidents per month. The decline in activity is likely due to a lack of targeting opportunities as shipping companies avoid the Red Sea, though it is also possible that US, UK, and Israeli airstrikes are having an impact.
Al-Houthi forces resumed their strikes against vessels in the Red Sea on Oct. 1, targeting two ships - the first confirmed strikes since early September. Panamanian-flagged oil tanker Cordelia Moon was struck by an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) 64 nautical miles (NM) northwest (119 km, 74 miles) of Yemen’s port of Al-Hudaydah. The second vessel, Liberian-flagged bulker Minoan Courage, was struck by a missile 97 NM (180 km, 112 miles) northwest of Al-Hudaydah. The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) of the Combined Maritime Forces assessed that Minoan Courage was an unintended target casualty and was accidentally hit due to its proximity to Cordelia Moon as both vessels transited northwards. Following this, Al-Houthi forces targeted the Liberian-flagged tanker Olympic Spirit with multiple ballistic missiles and drone strikes approximately 73 NM (135 km, 84 miles) southwest of Yemen’s Port of Al-Hudaydah. The vessel sustained minor damage. Additionally, on Oct. 28, Al-Houthis targeted Liberian-flagged bulker Motaro was close Yemen’s port of Mokha, though all strikes missed the vessel.
Fires on board the Greek-flagged oil tanker Sounion were extinguished on Oct. 6. Sounion had been on fire and drifting following a series of Al-Houthi unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and USV attacks Aug. 21-22. The tanker carried approximately 150,000 tonnes of crude oil, posing a significant environmental and navigational hazard. Sounion was towed in mid-September to a safe area, approximately 45 NM (80 km, 50 miles) off the northern coast of Eritrea, where the fires were extinguished with the assistance of rescue vessel Aigaion Pelagos. The next phase of the salvage operation will see the oil cargo removed in a ship-to-ship transfer over at least one month, which will take place in Suez, Egypt.
US and UK airstrikes continued against Al-Houthi targets throughout October. The US and UK carried out multiple airstrikes in various locations in Yemen, including Al-Hudaydah. The attacks targeted areas suspected to be Al-Houthi weapons storages and bases. Additionally, Israeli forces reported the downing of unmanned aerial vehicles and/or missiles from the Al-Houthis and Iraq’s Islamic Resistance in the northern Red Sea throughout October, likely targeting Eilat or cities in central Israel.
Al-Houthi militants initially claimed that their attacks would target Israel-linked assets in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip; this threat has since been expanded to include US and UK-linked vessels following airstrikes by these countries against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen, as well as vessels belonging to any shipping company doing business with Israel. Shipping vessels from other states participating in maritime protection operations in the Red Sea or deemed by the Al-Houthis to have aided the US and UK strikes may also be targeted. Iran, too, is suspected of targeting Israel-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea and has seized several tankers near its coast.
Operation Prosperity Guardian, a US-led expanded maritime protection force in and around the Red Sea, has been set up to provide additional security for shipping in the region. The EU also launched its own protective mission, Operation Aspides, in mid-February. US, UK, French, Italian, and German naval forces have destroyed several UAVs, missiles, speedboats, and USVs, as well as at least one unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). Iranian officials announced on Oct. 21 that Saudi Arabia will participate in joint military exercises in the Red Sea for the first time. It is unclear when these exercises will occur; Saudi Arabian officials have not yet confirmed this information. If they occur, these joint exercises will likely increase regional cooperation, though they may indicate declining regional confidence in US naval operations in the Red Sea.
Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO, maintain a policy of reduced or suspended transits through the Red Sea, as have oil and gas producers BP, Shell, and QatarEnergy. Several smaller cargo and energy shipping companies are also limiting or suspending transits. Additional companies may also halt operations in the Red Sea in the near term.
Attacks are typically preceded by an entity claiming to be the Yemeni Navy hailing the vessel on Channel 16 VHF in an attempt to divert the vessel toward Yemen. Individuals may also attempt to board the vessel from skiffs or fast boats, and exchanges of fire with ships' armed security teams have been reported.
Exercise caution and reconfirm routes with maritime authorities if transiting or shipping freight near the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or northern Arabian Sea. Companies should regularly review their ship security assessment and plan under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), particularly in piracy-prone areas. Companies are advised to maintain strict anti-piracy watches and report all pirate activity - including both actual and attempted attacks, as well as suspicious sightings - to local naval authorities.
The incidents in the Red Sea coincide with increased tensions in the region connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Iranian-backed groups throughout the region have pledged solidarity with Palestinians and carried out attacks against Israeli or US-linked targets since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response.
Yemen's Iran-backed Al-Houthi rebels have stated that they regard Israeli shipping as a legitimate target and that they would continue attacks until Israel's operations in Gaza come to an end. The Al-Houthis possess an extensive arsenal of anti-shipping weaponry, including naval mines, waterborne improvised explosive devices (WBIED), drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles. The group has previously attempted to seize vessels near Al-Hudaydah and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of suspicious approaches involving skiffs are relatively commonplace. US, Saudi, and Emirati naval vessels, as well as several civilian ships, have also been targeted during the nearly decade-long Yemeni Civil War. The Al-Houthis also possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and weaponized drones, some of which have the range to strike targets in Israel, and the group has claimed several attempted strikes on Israeli territory since Oct. 7.
Reports on Oct. 28 alleged that Russia shared data on vessels transiting the Red Sea to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stationed in Yemen, who in turn used the data to assist Al-Houthi efforts to target shipping. The report follows alleged talks between the Al-Houthis and Russia over the latter’s supply of weaponry to the group, which has been linked to the West’s support for Ukraine. If accurate, the reports highlight Russian efforts to use conflicts in the Middle East to destabilize the US and its allies by tying up their resources and threatening key supply chain routes, discouraging further support for Ukraine.
Iran has struck Israel-linked shipping in the Arabian Sea multiple times in recent years. Typically, incidents involve the use of weaponized drones at long distances from shore and occur during periods of heightened tensions between the two countries, such as after alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or at sea.
