Ukraine, Russia: Russia imposes aviation restrictions around disputed Crimean Peninsula April 20 /update 2

Event

Russia has reportedly placed flight restrictions over part of the Crimean Peninsula, which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014. The measures are in effect April 20-24 and will reportedly include a minimum flight altitude of 19,000 meters (62,000 feet) over the southern Crimea and adjacent waters. Russia has declared the area to be dangerous for aircraft during this period; the move is likely to be linked to ongoing maritime live-firing exercises in the area.

While the flight restrictions are unlikely to have any impact on commercial flights, they will likely exacerbate ongoing tensions with Ukraine, which the international community recognizes as having legal sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula. Russia previously attracted heavy international criticism, including from the US and NATO, after announcing the planned closure of the Kerch Strait, which links the Black Sea to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, to non-commercial, non-Russian shipping; the closure is scheduled to remain in effect April 24-Oct. 31.

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are currently heightened, with Moscow engaging in a large-scale buildup of military forces in Crimea, as well as along Russia's borders with eastern and northern Ukraine. Large deployments of Russian troops and military equipment have been reported. While the Kremlin's motives are unclear, direct armed conflict between the two countries remains unlikely; nevertheless, a further uptick in armed clashes, including artillery strikes, in the eastern Donbas region – where Ukrainian armed forces are engaged in a low-level conflict with pro-Russian separatists – is likely in the coming weeks. Russian troop movements and other sensitive developments will likely continue to prompt a reaction from Kyiv, including increased military deployments to the Donbas and shared border regions with Russia.

Context

The developments come in the context of a recent escalation in ceasefire violations along the line of contact in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions; at least 28 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in such incidents since early January. Although such violations are fairly common, the recent spike underscores the risks presented by low-level conflict and general lawlessness in the region. Recent developments will likely result in an elevated security posture throughout the Donbas region. The Ukrainian military could increase armed patrols and checkpoints, as well as deploy additional combat forces near the line of contact.

High-profile military exercises by both Russia and Ukraine are also likely in border areas and near the Crimean Peninsula. Elevated military activity could increase the potential for other types of confrontations similar to the November 2018 incident in which the Russian coast guard fired upon and detained three Ukrainian naval vessels transiting the Kerch Strait while heading to the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea. Following that incident, Ukraine imposed martial law in regions bordering Russia as a precaution against invasion; such a move cannot be ruled out if tensions continue to rise. Nationalist protests are also possible in Ukraine's major urban centers, particularly Kyiv, while pro-Russia protests are also possible from among the large ethnic-Russian minority.

Advice

Anticipate short-notice security-related disruptions, including road closures and increased security checkpoints, in Ukraine-Russia border areas and the Crimean Peninsula. Ensure travel documents are in order and be polite and nonconfrontational if stopped by security personal. Monitor local news sources for up-to-date transport disruptions. Avoid all protests as a routine security precaution and to mitigate related disruptions. Avoid travel near the line of contact in Donetsk and Luhansk due to the ongoing conflict; if such travel is essential, engage a trusted local contact or security escort and minimize time spent in the area.