Chad: Security situation likely to remain tense through at least mid-June /update 5

Event

The security situation in Chad will likely remain tense through at least mid-June due to ongoing nationwide opposition demonstrations and the potential for rebel activity. Opposition groups opposed to the Transitional Military Council's (TMC) rule and planned 18-month transitional governance period are reportedly planning a day of protest on May 19 and will likely organize further protests and strikes over coming weeks.

The TMC, headed by Mahamat Idriss Deby, announced May 2 that a transitional government would rule the country during an 18-month period following the death of President Idriss Deby Itno April 20. Anti-TMC demonstrations began in late April and have since been reported in major urban areas, including in N'Djamena. At least 650 people have reportedly been arrested and five killed in the protests and associated clashes.

The potential for destabilizing rebel activity also compounds risks to security in Chad. While clashes between members of the rebel group Le Front pour l'Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad (FACT) and the Chadian army have reportedly ceased in recent days, with government sources claiming victory against the rebel group, fighting between the factions has been reported as recently as early May in the Nokou region, located 200 km (125 miles) north of the capital. The situation is likely to remain unstable as FACT leaders have threatened to march on N'Djamena to depose the younger Deby.

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened presence in the capital and near all demonstrations in the coming weeks. Further clashes between protesters and the security forces are possible. Officials could tighten movement restrictions if the security situation deteriorates further in the coming weeks. Additional security patrols and checkpoints are likely in and on routes to and from the capital. Officials could also suspend communications in response to security incidents.

Advice

Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation until the situation stabilizes. Liaise with trusted contacts before travel to Chad or travel within Chad. Update and review contingency plans. Reconfirm the status of public transport before departure. Prepare for possible transportation and communications disruptions. Avoid all demonstrations and large concentrations of police if traveling in Chad, and especially N'Djamena; leave the area immediately if crowds form or violence breaks out. Seek updated information on the security of planned routes and destinations, as well as road conditions, before conducting ground movements. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel.