Nepal: Political demonstrations possible nationwide due to parliamentary vote of confidence scheduled May 10

Event

Demonstrations are possible throughout Nepal, especially in Kathmandu, as Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli - under criticism from opposition parties and rival members of his own Nepal Communist Party (NCP) - is set to table a vote of confidence May 10. Rallies both for and against PM Oli may occur in the coming weeks. The largest gatherings are likely in the Kathmandu Valley, including Bhaktapur, Kathmandu, and Lalitpur districts. Turnout is likely to be affected by ongoing COVID-19 gathering restrictions; participation in urban centers is typically higher. Earlier demonstrations in Kathmandu have involved thousands of people. Organizers do not typically publicize demonstration details in advance; gathering venues and timings are subject to change at short notice.

Security forces will almost certainly deploy to sensitive sites such as government buildings, political party offices, and rally venues, especially in Kathmandu. Clashes between police and activists could occur; authorities may try to break up more disruptive rallies. Clashes between supporters and detractors of Oli are also possible. Police have dispersed protests with water cannons and arrested protesters during similar protests. Localized transport disruptions are likely near well-attended demonstrations. Business disruptions are also possible, especially if violence occurs.

Context

Political protests have occurred nationwide since PM Oli proposed to dissolve parliament hours after several lawmakers filed a no-confidence motion against his government in December 2020. The decision was revoked by the Supreme Court Feb. 23, leading to the breakup of the ruling NCP into the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre. The Oli-led CPN-UML is also headed towards a split between factions in support of, and against PM Oli. Demonstrations are likely to continue in the medium term, with sporadic violence possible.

Advice

Exercise caution around government buildings, mainly in Kathmandu. Avoid rallies due to possible clashes. If violence breaks out nearby, take shelter in a secure, non-governmental building. Follow all security personnel instructions. Monitor trusted local news sources, as organizers may not announce protests in advance. Allow additional travel time near demonstrations. Confirm business appointments and transport reservations in advance.