Ethiopia: Heightened security likely nationwide ahead of June 21 general elections

Event

Authorities in Ethiopia will likely maintain an increased security posture nationwide through the country's June 21 general elections. Campaign events have been going on in major urban areas, including Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Adama, Bahir Dar, Gondar, and Awassa. More than 9,000 candidates representing 49 political parties will participate in the general elections; 46 parties have fielded their candidates and 32 will run for regional council seats, while 17 parties will compete for 547 seats in the lower parliamentary chamber - the House of Peoples’ Representatives (HoPR). Major opposition parties such as Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) have boycotted the elections due to the arrest and harassment of their leaders. Additionally, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced June 10 that votes in 54 constituencies in six regions have been postponed to Sept. 6 following reports of defective ballot papers. NEBE also postponed elections in Tigray Region indefinitely due to ongoing military operations there.

Security forces will most likely deploy near polling stations and national election commission facilities to prevent political violence, including militant attacks aimed at undermining the polls. Tensions between the supporters of rival candidates and activists from opposing political groups could increase ahead of election day and may continue after the results are announced. Localized business and transport disruptions could occur during any demonstrations that may materialize, as well as on election day.

Context

The NEBE had initially planned to hold the election in August 2020 but postponed it due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, the NEBE again delayed the election from June 5 to June 21, citing logistical issues, including low voter registration numbers.

Ethiopia’s current security and political challenges will have a significant impact on the election as the country has continued to face ethnic clashes, religious tensions, militia attacks, civil unrest, COVID-19-related economic hardship, border disputes due to increasing claims of self-autonomy, and the conflict in Tigray Region. If the elections go ahead, the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) will likely secure most of the votes in the House of Peoples’ Representatives (HoPR). However, opposition parties are also expected to earn a relatively significant number of seats, ending the country’s history of one-party dominance in the parliament.

Large-scale, election-related unrest has been rare in Ethiopia, although the country had experienced significant election-related violence in the past, mostly during the 2005 general elections. In 2005, preliminary results suggested a win for opposition groups. However, authorities delayed the final election results and the then-ruling Ethiopia's People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was eventually declared the winner with 59 percent of the vote. Following the announcement, civil unrest and accompanying widespread repression ensued, with more than 200 protesters killed and thousands jailed, including opposition leaders and journalists.

Advice

If operating in Ethiopia, exercise increased personal vigilance for the duration of the election period. Avoid all demonstrations and associated gatherings due to the possibility of violence. Keep away from areas where security personnel appear to be deploying. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe non-governmental building. Monitor trusted local news sources for developments. Heed all instructions from security personnel and allow extra time to reach destinations near rally locations.