New Caledonia: Protests possible territorywide after officials announce the date for third independence referendum

Event

Pro-independence activists and supporters could hold demonstrations in the coming days after the government announced the third independence referendum would take place Dec. 12. Some pro-independence groups, including the National Union for Independence (UNI), and supporters are opposed to the date, claiming it favors the central government. Some activists could protest to demand a later date for the referendum. Supporters are most likely to gather at government buildings in Noumea, such as the High Commission of the Republic and Congress of New Caledonia; however, demonstrations are possible at town halls and other locations throughout the territory.

Authorities will increase security near likely protest sites, especially government buildings. While roadblocks are less likely due to the involvement of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) in talks with the government, they cannot be ruled out. Activists may attempt to block main roads into Noumea, including Territory Route 1 (RT1), if opposition to the announcement grows. Officers are likely to break up any significant roadblocks. Protests and security measures will probably cause localized transport and business disruptions. Clashes are possible if police forcibly disperse the protesters.

Context

The vote is the third referendum required under the Noumea Accords and will allegedly settle the territory's status. New Caledonia has twice voted to remain part of France, but the margin fell by roughly three percent in 2020's vote. The government could have settled on a 2021 vote to leverage support for the local government amid the COVID-19 pandemic and to prohibit further erosion of support among remain voters. However, the FLNKS, which was the only pro-independence group to join talks with the government before the date announcement, plans to articulate a new vision for the territory to persuade voters to choose independence. Thus far, no pro-independence group intends to boycott the poll. Intense campaigning from both the remain and independence camps is likely in the coming months.

Advice

Exercise caution near likely protest sites. Seek updated information on protests as organizers may not announce specific plans in advance. Confirm business appointments near rallies. Plan for localized transport disruptions; check road conditions before beginning intercity travel. Allow additional time to reach destinations. If violence occurs nearby, immediately depart the area and seek shelter in a nongovernmental building. Heed all official security and transport advisories.