Caribbean Sea: Elsa intensifies to hurricane strength and tracks west-northwestward in eastern Caribbean Sea July 2 /update 2

Event

Elsa has strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane July 2. As of 11:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 10 km (5 miles) north of Saint Vincent. Forecast models indicate the system will continue tracking west-northwestward away from the Windward Islands, across the eastern Caribbean Sea, and toward Hispaniola. Elsa is forecast to pass near southwestern Haiti late July 3 and make landfall in southern Cuba July 4. The system will then likely weaken to a tropical storm before turning slightly northwestward and making a second landfall in Cuba near Cienfuegos early July 5. From there, early forecasts suggest the storm will likely track northward and make landfall near Port Charlotte, Florida, July 6, and then move north-northeastward across the Floridian peninsula to Jacksonville early July 7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of 11:00 AST July 2, the following warnings and watches are in effect:

• Hurricane Warning: Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and the southern portion of Haiti, from Port-au-Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic

• Hurricane Watch: Jamaica and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti

• Tropical Storm Warning: Barbados, Martinique, Dominica, Jamaica, the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, and the coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince

• Tropical Storm Watch: Grenada and its dependencies, Saba, Sint Eustatius, and the north coast of the Dominican Republic, from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.

Hazardous Conditions
Elsa will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through July 2. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Forecast models indicate 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) of rainfall is likely over portions of the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, and 2.5-8 cm (1-3 inches) of rainfall is likely over Puerto Rico over the coming hours. Models also predict 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) of rainfall is possible over Jamaica and southern Hispaniola July 3-4, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 38 cm (15 inches) of rainfall possible in those areas. The forecast heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, potentially isolating some communities for several days.

Prolonged sea swells and storm surge generated by the system may result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, Elsa could produce damaging wind gusts, resulting in power outages due to fallen trees and toppled utility lines.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least July 2 in coastal areas of the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, as well as through at least July 3 in Puerto Rico and southern Hispaniola. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming days.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Barbados Meteorological Services
Cuba Instituto de Meteorologia (Spanish)
Dominican Republic Oficina Nacional de Meteorologia (Spanish)
Dominica Meteorological Service
Haiti Centre national de meteorologie (French)
Jamaica Meteorological Service
Meteo-France (French)
Saint Lucia Meteorological Services
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines