Caribbean: Hurricane Beryl tracking west-northwestward over the Windward Islands and approaching Carriacou Island as of July 1 /update 4

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 4 Hurricane, is tracking west-northwestward over the Windward Islands July 1. As of 11:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 25 km (15 miles) east of Carriacou Island, Grenada.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall in the coming hours over southern Carriacou Island. Beryl is likely to maintain Category 4 hurricane strength as it tracks west-northwestward away from the Windward Islands and across the Caribbean Sea through early July 2. The system is expected to weaken into a Category 3 and then Category 2 hurricane as it continues tracking generally west-northwestwards across the Caribbean Sea and passes south of Jamaica July 3. The storm is forecast to weaken further into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestwards and makes another landfall over Quintana Roo State, Mexico, early July 5 before weakening rapidly into a tropical storm as it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and exits into the Gulf of Mexico through early July 6. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of July 1, authorities are maintaining the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago.
• Hurricane Watch: Jamaica
• Tropical Storm Warning: Martinique, Trinidad, and St. Lucia.
• Tropical Storm Watch: The south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti, and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning area July 1. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk in St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada. Hurricane conditions are possible in Jamaica by July 3. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing or imminent in the tropical storm warning area and are possible in the watch area by the afternoon of July 2.

Beryl is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) across Barbados and the Windward Islands through July 1, with localized higher maximums of 25 cm (10 inches) possible, especially in the Grenadines. Flash flooding is likely in the vulnerable areas.

A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by 1.8-2.7 meters (6-9 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast. Large swells generated by Beryl are likely across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands over the coming days and will reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola July 1-2. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines have advised residents in low-lying areas to evacuate, especially those in Bequia Lower Bay, Port Elizabeth, Paget Farm, and Chatham Bay on Union Island; more than 1,000 people are being accommodated in around 41 emergency shelters across the islands. Hurricane and flash flood warnings are in effect across St. Vincent and the Grenadines. In Grenada, a state of emergency has been declared. More than 2,000 people are being accommodated in around 100 emergency shelters across Grenada Island, and around 124 people are in emergency shelters on Carriacou Island. Authorities in Barbados urged all nonessential businesses on the island to close late June 30. A national shutdown is in effect in Saint Lucia as of late June 30; businesses and schools remain closed July 1. Schools have been closed, and shelters have been opened on Tobago Island in Trinidad and Tobago. All ferry sailings between Trinidad and Tobago islands have been canceled July 1. As of early July 1, power outages have been reported on Carriacou Island in Grenada and Tobago Island in Trinidad and Tobago. Further severe weather impacts are likely in the Windward Islands over the coming hours; however, it may take some time for damage assessments to be conducted due to the severe conditions, especially in remote areas.

Grenada's Maurice Bishop International Airport (GND) is closed through early July 2, while St. Vincent and the Grenadine's Argyle International Airport (SVD), Barbados's Grantley Adams International Airport (BGI), Saint Lucia's Hewanorra International (UVF), and George F. L. Charles (SLU) airports are closed until further notice. Caribbean Airlines has also canceled and revised the departure times of several flights out of Trinidad and Tobago due to Beryl.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.