Honduras: Tropical Storm Sara almost stationary off the coast of northern Honduras early Nov. 16 /update 5

Tropical Storm Sara is almost stationary off the coast of northern Honduras early Nov. 16, having made landfall near Brus Laguna in Gracias a Dios Department late Nov. 14 and subsequently skirting slowly along the northern coast of Honduras Nov. 15. As of 03:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 40 km (25 miles) southwest of Roatan Island, Bay Islands Department, Honduras.

Forecast models indicate that the system will track northwestward away from the north coast of mainland Honduras and make landfall over western Roatan Island in the Bay Islands over the coming hours. Sara is expected to strengthen slightly as it continues to track northwestward and make another landfall over northern Stann Creek District in Belize during the morning of Nov. 17. Sara is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland over Belize and into far northeastern Guatemala Nov. 17 before degrading into a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward over Campeche State, Mexico, late Nov. 17-early Nov. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of early Nov. 16, authorities are maintaining the following warnings and watches:

Tropical Storm Warning

• The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border

• The Bay Islands of Honduras

• The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala

• The coast of Belize

• The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area in Honduras through early Nov. 17. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico from late Nov. 16. Rainfall totals of up to 38-64 cm (15-25 inches), with maximum amounts of 89 cm (35 inches), are likely over portions of northern Honduras through Nov. 18. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and Quintana Roo State in Mexico, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rain with localized totals of around 38 cm (15 inches) are forecast through Nov. 18. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of landslides.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

The Secretariat of State for National Risk and Contingency Management Offices (COPECO) in Honduras has issued red alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Atlantida, Bay Islands, Colon, Gracias a Dios, and Yoro departments due to the storm as of early Nov. 16. Yellow alerts are in place for Cortes, Olancho, and Santa Barbara departments and a green alert is in place across the rest of Honduras. Schools have been closed across parts of the affected area, including Atlantida, Colon, and the Bay Islands.

As of early Nov. 16, more than 45,000 people have been affected by flooding and landslides in northern parts of Honduras. At least 565 people have been displaced and three people remain missing. Over 1,200 people across affected areas have sought refuge in shelters, mainly in Atlantida and Colon departments. Juan Manuel Galvez International Airport (RTB) in Roatan, Goloson International Airport (LCE) in La Ceiba, and the Toncontin International Airport (TGU) in Tegucigalpa have suspended operations until further notice. The storm has cut off at least 81 communities in affected areas and damage to roads, bridges, homes, and other infrastructure has been reported across affected areas of northern Honduras. Officials declared a nationwide state of emergency for 30 days starting Nov. 15 due to the impacts of Tropical Storm Sara.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.