Belize: Tropical Storm Sara tracking west-northwestward off the coast of Belize early Nov. 17 /update 7

Tropical Storm Sara is tracking west-northwestward off the coast of Belize as of early Nov. 17, having skirted slowly along the northern coast of Honduras late Nov. 14-15 and passing over the Bay Islands early Nov. 16. As of 03:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 90 km (55 miles) south-southeast of Belize City, Belize.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make another landfall over northern Stann Creek District in Belize in the coming hours. Sara is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks inland over Belize and into far northeastern Guatemala Nov. 17, before weakening further and dissipating over Campeche State, Mexico, early Nov. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

As of early Nov. 17, authorities are maintaining the following warnings and watches:

Tropical Storm Warning

• The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border

• The Bay Islands of Honduras

• The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala

• The coast of Belize

• The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. Rainfall totals from the storm of up to 38-64 cm (15-25 inches), with maximum amounts of 102 cm (35 inches), are likely over portions of northern Honduras through Nov. 18. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and Quintana Roo State in Mexico, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rain with localized totals of around 38 cm (15 inches) are forecast through Nov. 18. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of landslides.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

The Secretariat of State for National Risk and Contingency Management Offices (COPECO) in Honduras is maintaining red alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Atlantida, Bay Islands, Colon, Coertes, Gracias a Dios, and Yoro departments due to the storm as of early Nov. 17. Yellow alerts are in place for Choluteca, Olancho, Santa Barbara, and Valle departments and a green alert is in place across the rest of Honduras. Schools have been closed across parts of the affected area, including Atlantida, Colon, and the Bay Islands.

As of early Nov. 17, around 60,000 people have been affected by flooding and landslides in northern parts of Honduras. One fatality has been reported in Yoro Department and at least three people remain missing. At least 2,300 people have been displaced and more than 5,000 people across affected areas have been evacuated or are being housed in emergency shelters. Juan Manuel Galvez International Airport (RTB) in Roatan, Goloson International Airport (LCE) in La Ceiba, and Ramon Villeda Morales International Airport (SAP) in San Pedro Sula have suspended operations until further notice. Normal operations have resumed at Toncontin International Airport (TGU) in Tegucigalpa. The storm has cut off around 200 communities in affected areas and damage to roads, bridges, homes, and other infrastructure has been reported across parts of northern Honduras. Officials declared a nationwide state of emergency for 30 days starting Nov. 15 due to the impacts of Tropical Storm Sara.

In Belize, authorities in Stann Creek District ordered all businesses to close from 18:00 Nov. 16 until further notice. Flood alerts are in place across central and northern regions of Belize; flooding is already impacting some areas as of early Nov, 17, including Belize City, and several roads, bridges, and ferry services are closed. Philip S. W. Goldson International Airport (BZE) is closed through early Nov. 18.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.