Honduras: Tropical Storm Sara tracking westward along the coast of northern Honduras the evening of Nov. 15 /update 4

Tropical Storm Sara is tracking westward just off the coast of western Colon Department in northern Honduras the evening of Nov. 15, having made landfall near Brus Laguna in Gracias a Dios Department late Nov. 14 and subsequently skirting along the northern coast of Honduras. As of 18:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 55 km (35 miles) southwest of Isla Gunaja, Bay Islands Department, Honduras.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen slightly as it turns northwestward away from the north coast of mainland Honduras the early Nov. 16 and passes through the Bay Islands. Sara is expected to continue to track northwestward and make another landfall over Stann Creek District in Belize during the morning of Nov. 17. Sara is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland over Belize and northeastern Guatemala noon Nov. 17 before degrading into a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward over southwestern Campeche State, Mexico, late Nov. 17. The system will exit into the Gulf of Mexico early Nov. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of the evening of Nov. 15, authorities are maintaining the following warnings and watches:

Tropical Storm Warning

• The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border

• The Bay Islands of Honduras

• The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala

• The coast of Belize

• The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras over the coming days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico from Nov. 16. Rainfall totals of up to 38-64 cm (15-25 inches), with maximum amounts of 89 cm (35 inches), are likely over portions of northern Honduras through at least Nov. 19. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and Quintana Roo State in Mexico, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rain with localized totals of around 38 cm (15 inches) are forecast through Nov. 19. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of landslides.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

The Secretariat of State for National Risk and Contingency Management Offices (COPECO) in Honduras has issued red alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Atlantida, Bay Islands, Colon, and Gracias a Dios departments due to the storm as of the evening of Nov. 15. Yellow alerts are in place for Cortes, Olancho, and Yoro departments and a green alert is in place for Santa Barbara Department. Authorities have established emergency shelters and banned maritime navigation in the Bay Islands. Schools have been closed across parts of the affected area, including Atlantida, Colon, and the Bay Islands.

As of the evening of Nov. 15, around 20,500 people have been affected by the storm, at least 570 evacuated, and three people remain missing. Around 212 people have evacuated to three shelters in Atlantida and Colon departments. Juan Manuel Galvez International Airport (RTB) in Roatan, Goloson International Airport (LCE) in La Ceiba, and the Toncontin International Airport (TGU) in Tegucigalpa have suspended operations until further notice. The storm has cut off at least 37 communities and damage has been reported in the city of La Ceiba in Atlantida Department due to heavy rainfall. Flooded roads have been reported on Roatan Island in the Bay Islands and flooding has also been reported in parts of Gracias a Dios and Yoro departments.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.