Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Elsa tracking west-northwestward in the northern Caribbean Sea early July 3 /update 4

Event

Elsa has weakened slightly and continues to track as a Category 1 hurricane in a west-northwestward direction in the northern Caribbean Sea, early July 3. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 310 km (190 miles) east-southeast of Beata Island, Dominican Republic. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength and continue tracking west-northwestward toward Hispaniola, making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane west of Port-au Prince, Haiti, late July 3 and after, southern Cuba afternoon July 4. After landfall, the system is likely to weaken into a tropical storm while turning northwestward as it tracks across Cuba through at least July 5. Early forecasts suggest the storm will then likely track northward across the Straits of Florida, make a close approach to Key West, Florida, early July 6, and make a close approach to Saint Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida, early July 7. Elsa would likely turn to track in a northeasterly direction and make landfall as a tropical storm near Gainesville, Floride, July 7. After landfall, Elsa is forecasted to weaken rapidly as it tracks northeastwards across Florida and Georgia, into South Carolina, early July 8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of 05:00 AST July 3, the following warnings and watches are in effect:

• Hurricane Warning: Southern portion of Haiti, from Port-au-Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and the Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti

• Hurricane Watch: Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

• Tropical Storm Warning: Southern coast of the Dominican Republic, from east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano, and the coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince

• Tropical Storm Watch: North coast of the Dominican Republic, from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo, Cayman Brac, and Little Cayman

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.

Hazardous Conditions
Elsa will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to Puerto Rico through July 3, southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through July 4, and the Cayman Islands and Cuba through July 5. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Forecast models indicate 2.5-8 cm (1-3 inches) of rainfall is likely over Puerto Rico, July 3. Models also predict 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) of rainfall is possible over Jamaica and southern Hispaniola July 3-4, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 38 cm (15 inches) of rainfall possible in those areas. By July 4, Elsa is forecast to bring 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rainfall to the Cayman Islands and Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 38 cm (15 inches). Approximately 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall is forecasted for the Florida Keys and southern Florida, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 cm (6 inches) of rainfall from July 5. The forecast heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, potentially isolating some communities for several days.

Prolonged sea swells and storm surge generated by the system may result in coastal flooding. Forecasts predict storm surges of 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) for the southern coast of Cuba, 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) for the southern coast of Hispaniola, and 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) for Jamaica. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, Elsa could produce damaging wind gusts, resulting in power outages due to fallen trees and toppled utility lines.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through July 3 in Puerto Rico, July 4 in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, and July 5 in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming days.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Barbados Meteorological Services
Cuba Instituto de Meteorologia (Spanish)
Dominican Republic Oficina Nacional de Meteorologia (Spanish)
Dominica Meteorological Service
Haiti Centre national de meteorologie (French)
Jamaica Meteorological Service
Meteo-France (French)
Saint Lucia Meteorological Services
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines