Ethiopia: Heightened security likely nationwide through late July following announcement of election results July 10 /update 1

Event

Authorities in Ethiopia will likely maintain an increased security posture nationwide through at least late July following the July 10 announcement of the June 21 parliamentary election results. The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced that incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party (PP) won a majority of seats in parliament, securing 410 out of 436 parliamentary seats, granting him another five-year term in office. Votes in 54 constituencies in six regions will still be held Sept 6, because of ethnic violence or logistical problems in those areas. NEBE also postponed elections in Tigray Region indefinitely due to ongoing military operations there.

Tensions between the supporters of rival candidates and activists from opposing political groups could increase following the announcement of the results. Pro-government and opposition rallies may take place in the coming days. Localized business and transport disruptions could occur during any demonstrations that may materialize. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible as forces attempt to disperse any gathering.

Context

The NEBE had initially planned to hold the election in August 2020 but postponed it due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, the NEBE again delayed the election from June 5 to June 21, citing logistical issues, including low voter registration numbers.

Ethiopia’s current security and political challenges will have a significant impact on the election as the country has continued to face ethnic clashes, religious tensions, militia attacks, civil unrest, COVID-19-related economic hardship, border disputes due to increasing claims of self-autonomy, and the conflict in Tigray Region.

Large-scale, election-related unrest has been rare in Ethiopia, although the country had experienced significant election-related violence in the past, mostly during the 2005 general elections. In 2005, preliminary results suggested a win for opposition groups. However, authorities delayed the final election results and then-ruling Ethiopia's People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was eventually declared the winner with 59 percent of the vote. Following the announcement, civil unrest and accompanying widespread repression ensued, with more than 200 protesters killed and thousands jailed, including opposition leaders and journalists.

Advice

If operating in Ethiopia, exercise increased personal vigilance in the coming weeks. Avoid all demonstrations and associated gatherings due to the possibility of violence. Keep away from areas where security personnel appear to be deploying. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe non-governmental building. Monitor trusted local news sources for developments. Heed all instructions from security personnel and allow extra time to reach destinations near rally locations.