South Africa: Shortages reported in KwaZulu-Natal province following widespread unrest as of morning hours July 15 /update 6

Event

As of the morning of July 15, long queues over fuel, food, and other commodities have been reported across Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN) provinces. This follows further, albeit limited, reports of unrest in KZN and Gauteng, July 14. As of morning hours July 15, relative calm has been reported in both regions, with limited clean-up operations underway. Logistics officials have cited disruptions to critical incoming and outgoing supply routes in impacted provinces, as well as concerns over the safety of personnel and vehicles as the reason for shortages. Despite the relative improvement in the security situation, authorities are increasing the current South African National Defence Force deployment from 5,000 personnel to approximately 25,000; the exact date by which the full deployment will be completed is unclear. This contingent is almost certainly going to be deployed to areas affected by recent violence which has left at least 72 people dead. Authorities have arrested over 1,200 more people.

Further Information on the current situation is listed below:

KZN
The situation in Pietermaritzburg and Richards Bay currently remains relatively calm and with limited reports of unrest and looting; however, roads will likely remain impacted until they have been cleared of debris. There are reports of sporadic looting around Durban, specifically the Merebank area south of the city.

Widespread fuel shortages have been reported in KZN as of July 15 following the shutdown of South Africa's largest oil refinery, SAPREF July 13; the facility supplies South Africa with 35 percent of its refined products. Looters also targeted fuel storage facilities in recent days. It is currently unclear how long the closure and shortages will continue. Shortages of food and other supplies are also occurring in some areas, including the province's administrative capital, Pietermaritzburg, and KZN's largest urban center, Durban. Long queues around shopping centers have been reported.

Roads in KZN, particularly around Durban, remain impacted by the recent unrest; however, local communities have set up checkpoints, allowing travel only with proof of residence. Southbound travel on the N2 between Dokodweni and Durban is reportedly ongoing. The N3 between Howick and Harrismith is closed as of morning hours, July 15.

Gauteng
Johannesburg and surrounds remain relatively calm and clean-up operations have begun in affected areas of Gauteng. Operations have been reported in Alexandra, in the vicinity of Mams Mall in Pretoria, Soshanguve, Pimville, and in Vosloorus.

Metrorail trains are operating as of morning hours July 15 along certain routes after being suspended since July 12. Trains from Pienaarspoort, Mabopane and Saulsville to Pretoria (Tshwane) are expected to run, as well as Naledi to Johannesburg and the Vereeniging to Union service. The N1 highway in Johannesburg remains open. Authorities have suspended Metrobus services through at least July 18.

Heightened security will almost certainly remain in place through end of July. The government has deployed thousands of military personnel in KZN and Gauteng and further deployments are planned in the coming days. The police service will also continue to deploy. Protests will almost certainly persist in response to Zuma’s incarceration. Opportunistic unrest, including looting is also likely to persist in recently impacted areas and, possibly, in other urban centers in South Africa. National highways, informal settlements, city and town centers, warehousing districts are potential gathering points. The threat of clashes between protesters/looters and the security forces is high. Clashes between vigilante groups, including taxi associations and armed neighborhood watch groups, and looters or suspected looters remain a persistent threat in all recently impacted locations. The recent unrest will also exacerbate supply chain pressures. Shortages, which are likely in KZN, Gauteng and nearby provinces, will persist. These shortages could also prompt further protests

Context

Protesters have gathered regularly in KZN and Gauteng since former President Jacob Zuma's July 7 arrest and incarceration. Zuma was sentenced to 15 months imprisonment after being found guilty of contempt of court, June 29. He was arrested late July 7 and is currently incarcerated at the Estcourt Correctional Centre. An appeal to the Pietermaritzburg High Court to overturn the warrant of execution for his arrest was dismissed July 7, and on July 12, the Constitutional Court reserved judgment on Zuma’s application to have his 15-month sentence for contempt rescinded.

Although the deployment of SANDF personnel will likely temper the threat of a severe protest escalation, the food, fuel, and basic good shortages in Gauteng and especially KZN could spark further protests. The civil unrest is ostensibly linked to the ongoing incarceration of Zuma; however, most looting action appears opportunistic and criminally motivated, as well as being driven by longstanding grievances over local disputes, high levels of unemployment, service delivery demands, and corruption.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information on planned and actual protest areas. Consider alternative routes around impact areas. Plan for disruptions to both passenger and freight transport. Reconfirm the status of roads before travel. Heed the directives of the local authorities. Avoid the use of public transport services. Plan accordingly for potential fuel shortages until refinery operations resume. Verify deliveries; implement action plans to minimize supply chain disruptions. Stock up on fuel when possible.

Resources

i-traffic KZN (Twitter)
ECR Traffic (Twitter)
Jo'burg Metro Police Department