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08 Aug 2021 | 10:24 AM UTC

East China Sea: Tropical Storm Lupit tracks northeastward in the East China Sea late Aug. 8 /update 9

TS Lupit tracks northeastward in East China Sea Aug. 8. Landfall forecast near Nagashima Island, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, late Aug. 8.

Critical

Event

Tropical Storm Lupit is tracking northeastward in the East China Sea late Aug. 8. As of 18:00 JST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 324 km (201 miles) south-southwest of Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan. Forecast models indicate the system will continue transiting northeastward through the East China Sea before likely making landfall as a tropical storm over Nagashima Island, Izumi District, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, late Aug. 8. The storm is then forecast to maintain its strength as it continues to track northeastward over Kyushu and southern Honshu's Yamaguchi, Hiroshima, and Shimane prefectures early Aug. 9 before exiting into the Sea of Japan as it strengthens slightly later that day. The system is projected to weaken slightly before making another landfall as a tropical storm near Akita, Akita Prefecture, mid-Aug. 10; the storm will then likely track northeastward across Tohoku Region's Akita and Iwate prefectures before finally exiting into the North Pacific Ocean by late Aug. 10. Some uncertainty remains in the system's track and intensity forecast, and changes may occur over the coming days.

As of Aug. 8, at least 51,775 people have been evacuated from Fukuoka Prefecture, including 45,003 elderly, while at least 163,895 people have been evacuated from Kagoshima Prefecture, including at least 155,877 elderly. Additional evacuations for the elderly have been ordered, affecting 41,074 from Ehime, 306,134 from Hiroshima, 373,666 from Kumamoto, 488 from Miyazaki, 518,505 from Nagasaki, 148,822 from Oita, 9084 from Saga, 11,347 from Tokushima, and 38,984 from Yamaguchi prefectures. At least 91 flights from airports in Kagoshima, Miyazaki, and Okinawa prefecture have been canceled. More flights could be canceled if conditions worsen.

Government Advisories
As of Aug. 8, the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued the following warnings and alerts:

  • Purple (i.e., the highest level on a three-tier scale) warnings for landslides are in place for western Kagoshima Prefecture, while purple storm surge warnings have been issued for northeastern Fukuoka and southwestern Yamaguchi prefectures.

  • Orange (i.e., second-highest level on a three-tier scale) warnings for heavy rain, landslides, inundation, high waves, storm surge, and thunderstorms are in effect for parts of western Ehime, Fukuoka, Hiroshima, Kagoshima, western and central Kumamoto, southern and eastern Miyazaki, Nagasaki, eastern Oita, Saga, and western Yamaguchi prefectures as well as the Amami Islands in Kagoshima Prefecture.

  • Yellow warnings heavy rain, landslides, inundation, high waves, storm surge, and thunderstorms for the rest of the affected area.

By late Aug. 9, heavy rainfall is likely to affect much of western Japan, with rainfall totals of up to 30 cm (12 inches) possible in the Shikoku Region. Lesser rainfall totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches) are possible in Kansai, northern Kyushu, and the Tokai regions, while up to 20cm (8 inches) of rainfall are possible in the Chugoku and southern Kyushu regions. The Kanto and Koshin regions are likely to experience up to 12 cm (5 inches) while up to 10 cm (4 inches) of rainfall is possible for the Hokuriku Region through late Aug. 9.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has forecasted large waves of up to 6 m (20 feet) in the Amami, Kansai, Kanto, Koshin, southern Kyushu, Shikoku, and Tokai regions while wave heights of up to 5 m (16 feet) are possible for the Chugoku, Hokuriku, northern Kyushu, and Tohoku regions.

Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of additional localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to much of Japan and parts of southern South Korea and far southeastern Russia over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger further localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in major urban centers' low-income or underdeveloped areas due to incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Japan Meteorological Agency