Ethiopia: Heightened security likely in several regions ahead of second-round elections Sept. 30

Event

Ethiopia will likely maintain a heightened security posture in several regions where the second round of voting in the country's general election is scheduled to take place Sept. 30. The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) will hold elections in the Harari, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' (SNNPR), Somali, Oromia, Amhara, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. However, in at least 26 constituencies in Oromia, Amhara, and Benishangul-Gumuz, voting will not take place due to security and logistical issues. Authorities also postponed voting in Tigray indefinitely due to ongoing military operations in the region.

Major opposition parties such as Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (ECSJ), Freedom and Equality Party (FEP), and Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) have boycotted the second phase of voting due to alleged fraud by the ruling Prosperity Party (PP).

Security forces will likely deploy near polling stations and national election commission facilities to prevent political violence, including militant attacks aimed at undermining the elections. Tensions between rival political activists could increase ahead of Sept. 30 and may persist after the results are announced. Localized business and transport disruptions could occur during any demonstrations that may materialize, as well as on election day.

Context

Significant election-related violence occurred during Ethiopia's 2005 general election, but widespread election-election-related unrest remains rare in the country. After the first round of voting June 21, NEBE announced that the ruling PP had won 410 out of 436 parliamentary seats, thereby securing another five-year term in office for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The new government is scheduled to be formed Oct. 4.

Advice

Exercise increased personal vigilance for the duration of the election period in affected areas. Avoid all demonstrations and associated gatherings due to the possibility of violence. Keep away from areas where security personnel appear to be deploying. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe non-governmental building. Monitor trusted local news sources for developments. Heed all instructions from security personnel and allow extra time to reach destinations near rally locations.