Lebanon: Anti-government protests and strikes are likely to persist through late October /update 10

Event

Anti-government demonstrations and strikes will likely continue across Lebanon through at least late October despite the formation of a new government. Lebanese political parties agreed Sept. 10 to form a new government led by Najib Mikati; the country has been without a fully functioning government since the 2020 explosion at the Port of Beirut. Mikati has stated that he will take decisive steps to enact reforms and address the country's dire economic situation.

Mikati's formation of a new government comes amid nationwide demonstrations. Activists have organized recent demonstrations to denounce perceived government corruption, economic mismanagement, and delays in investigating the 2020 Beirut port explosion. Conditions continue to deteriorate. The Lebanese pound has lost around 90 percent of its value since widespread protests first erupted in October 2019. The pound's collapse has strained the government's limited resources, raising concerns over dwindling subsidies. Widespread shortages of basic commodities such as fuel and medicine have prompted an uptick in disruptive demonstrations and violence.

Demonstrations, sit-ins, strikes, and roadblocks will almost certainly continue across the country, including in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, and Tyre. Prominent rally sites include public squares, government buildings, and city centers. In Beirut, protests will likely materialize at the Port of Beirut, the Ministry of Justice, Riad el-Solh Road, Martyrs' Square, and near the government palace. Demonstrators may burn tires and sporadically barricade main roadways during protests, prompting ground travel disruptions. Transport disruptions and strikes could also result in further commercial disruptions. Security forces will almost certainly continue to monitor and respond to all protests and roadblocks. Clashes between security forces and protesters are possible, especially if protesters ignore police orders or are overly disruptive.

Protesters have engaged in rioting and acts of vandalism against public and private property. Activists are particularly frustrated with banks and other financial institutions, which have imposed capital controls on withdrawals and foreign transfers. Demonstrators have previously targeted banks with improvised incendiary devices; additional similar incidents remain possible. In response to the demonstrations, periodic bank closures have been occurring throughout Lebanon; further bank closures could occur and will likely result in low cash supplies at ATMs.

Context

The new 24-minister cabinet is composed of technocrats. However, they have been selected by the country’s main Shi'a, Sunni, and Christian political parties; critics accordingly claim that the new set of ministers are technocrats in name only and will likely serve as a surreptitious vehicle for the advancement of the interests of the country's political elites. Given Lebanon's political stalemate in recent years, it remains unclear if Mikati can bring about needed political and economic reforms under these conditions. Mikati's first significant challenge will be securing financial support from the international community, especially Arab countries, notably Saudi Arabia. Lebanon's Central Bank stated on Sept. 13 that it would receive USD 1.135 billion Sept. 16 from the International Monetary Fund special drawing rights (SDRs) to improve the country's economy; however, further aid is required to allow Lebanon to climb out of its liquidity crisis.

Lebanon is currently mired in its worst crisis since its 1975-1990 Civil War. Protesters continue to demand the resignation of Lebanon's entire ruling elite and an overhaul of the confessional government structure, which distributes political power according to religious sect. Demonstrators claim that this system has only benefitted political elites and encourages a lack of accountability. Over half of Lebanon's population lives below the poverty line, and many businesses have struggled to stay afloat amid the economic meltdown and COVID-19 pandemic. Major economic and political reforms will be required to help reverse the crisis, unlock international financial assistance, and address the demands of protesters.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts regarding protest sites and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for localized clashes or other security incidents. Allow significant extra time to reach destinations in city centers in Lebanon until the protests abate. Do not attempt to pass through protester roadblocks; wait for authorities to remove them. Be alert for residual debris and sharp objects if driving on previously blocked roads. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement officers. Reconfirm business appointments.