Saudi Arabia: Additional Al-Houthi projectile attacks almost certain to target southern provinces over coming days following multiple attacks Sept. 4

Event

Additional Al-Houthi-launched attacks utilizing weaponized drones and ballistic missiles are almost certain to target locations in Saudi Arabia over the coming days following reports of at least six intercepts Sept. 4. Saudi air defense forces reportedly intercepted at least three weaponized drones and three ballistic missiles targeting the southern cities of Najran and Jazan, as well as Dammam in the kingdom's Eastern Province. Post-intercept debris in Dammam injured two individuals and caused minor damage to multiple residential buildings. The Sept. 4 attacks come amid a recent uptick in Al-Houthi cross-border projectile launches.

Further Al-Houthi attacks are likely to primarily target Saudi Arabia's southern provinces of Asir, Najran, and Jazan; however, periodic attacks against targets as far afield as Dammam are also likely. Local Saudi authorities will probably maintain increased security until it becomes clear that no further launches are imminent. Localized disruptions to transport and business operations are possible near impact sites of post-intercept debris. An increase in Saudi airstrikes against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen is possible over the short term.

Context

The lack of objective sources covering the conflict between the Saudi-led coalition and Al-Houthi rebels makes it challenging to independently verify reports of longer-range weaponized drone and ballistic missile attacks or intercepts inside Saudi Arabia. Each side relies heavily on propaganda and misdirection in the media to shape the narrative to its policy objectives. As is often the case with reports of alleged drone or ballistic missile attacks or intercepts, neither Riyadh nor the Al-Houthi rebels provide much, if any, verifiable proof to support their respective claims.

The Al-Houthi rebels have demonstrated an intent to target major population centers in Saudi Arabia with weaponized drones and ballistic missiles. While their precise tactical capabilities are unclear, the rebel group claims to possess several short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) with ranges from 30 km (18 miles) to 1,000 km (620 miles). The group, with help from Iran, also claims to possess several indigenously produced drones with ranges from 15 km (9 miles) to 500 km (310 miles). Nevertheless, the Saudi military employs a wide array of air defense platforms and appears to have significantly mitigated the drone and ballistic missile threat in its southern border provinces; however, falling post-intercept debris remains a potentially lethal hazard.

Advice

If incoming artillery fire or drone activity is reported in the general vicinity, stay indoors away from windows and exterior walls, and, if possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Saudi Arabia's southern border provinces.