South China Sea: Tropical Storm Conson tracking west-northwestward over eastern South China Sea early Sept. 9 /update 5

Event

Tropical Storm Conson (known in the Philippines as Jolina) is tracking west-northwestward over the far eastern reaches of the South China Sea early Sept. 9 after transiting over the northern Philippines. As of 11:00 CST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 319 km (198 miles) west-northwest of Manila, Philippines. The system is forecast to shift to a westward course and intensify into a typhoon before making a close approach to the Paracel Islands from late Sept. 10 to early Sept. 12. Conson is forecast to weaken slightly into a tropical storm as it turns to track northwest, passing south of Hainan Province, China, and approaching central Vietnam early Sept. 13. Landfall is forecast as a tropical storm over Thanh Hoa Province, Vietnam, early Sept. 14. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

Conson has caused significant power outages in parts of Samar and southern Luzon, Philippines. Officials say Conson has affected Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Eastern Visayas, with around 6,397 people in 90 evacuation centers and up to 1,470 people sheltering elsewhere.

Government Advisories
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has lifted all Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals associated with Tropical Storm Conson as of early Sept. 9. However, moderate-to-strong winds are still likely over western Luzon. Additionally, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) 1 is in place for northeastern Apayao, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and northeastern Isabela due to Super Typhoon Chanthu.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
Officials in the Philippines forecast that light-to-moderate rains associated with Tropical Storm Conson will affect Palawan, Western Visayas, and the Zamboanga Peninsula through early Sept. 10. PAGASA has also warned of potential flooding in parts of Bulacan after officials released excess water from the Ipo Dam. Residents in low-lying areas and those near Angat River from Angat, Baliuag, Bustos, Hagonoy, Norzagaray, Plaridel, Pulilan, and San Rafael municipalities should remain vigilant for the possibility of flash floods.

The storm will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to parts of far southern China and central Vietnam starting Sept. 10. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Conson has caused significant flight disruptions in parts of the Philippines. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger further flight disruptions at regional airports. Officials may also suspend ferry and cargo services in affected areas.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in the low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to the presence of incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or typhoon conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration