Iraq: Demonstrations denouncing election results likely in Baghdad, predominantly Shi'a governorates through late October

Event

Protests denouncing the results of Iraq's Oct. 10 parliamentary elections are likely in Baghdad and the country's predominantly Shi'a central and southern governorates through at least late October. The potential for election-related protest activity comes after the Iran-linked Resistance Coordination Committee recently called for demonstrations against the election results, claiming that foreign actors meddled in the vote tabulations. Activists organized related protests Oct. 17 in Baghdad, Basra, and Wasit governorates, blocking roads and clashing with security forces.

Transport and business disruptions are likely around any demonstrations. Clashes between protesters and security forces cannot be ruled out.

Context

Turnout was low in Iraq's Oct. 10 parliamentary elections - only about 43 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot, compared to 44.5 percent in the last election in 2018. Prominent Shi'a cleric and nationalist political leader Muqtada al-Sadr's Saairun Alliance won the plurality of the Oct. 10 vote, securing 73 of the parliament's 329 seats. Notably, Iran-backed parties associated with Shi'a militias lost seats, only securing around 20 compared to their 48 seats gained in the 2018 vote. The Fatah Alliance, representing pro-Iran militias, has accordingly vowed to "not accept these fabricated results, whatever the cost," raising the likelihood of post-election unrest and violence, especially if pro-Iran militias are left out of an eventual governing coalition.

The outcome of the Oct. 10 poll is generally indicative of a rise in anti-Iranian sentiment among Iraqi voters. In recent years, pro-Iran militias have targeted anti-government critics and social justice activists while functioning like a parallel state apparatus. Such efforts have curbed political dissent and challenged the authority of state institutions.

The low turnout of the election, however, also points to widespread political apathy among Iraqis and a lack of confidence in government amid perceived institutionalized corruption. Moreover, popular grievances over this perceived corruption, high unemployment, poor provision of public services, and alleged criminal impunity, among other issues, may lead to additional protests, especially if a member of the established political elite, such as current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi or former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, leads the next government and these perennial grievances remain largely unaddressed.

Advice

Avoid all protests and rallies as a routine precaution. Heed the advice of security personnel. Leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, non-governmental building if violence erupts. Allow additional time to reach destinations near areas affected by protest activity.