Japan: Typhoon Malou tracking northeastward in the Philippine Sea early Oct. 28; close approach to Ogasawara Islands Oct. 28 /update 1

Event

Typhoon Malou is tracking northeastward in the Philippine Sea early Oct. 28. As of 09:00 JST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 154 km (96 miles) south-southwest of Iwo Jima, Japan. Forecast models indicate that the storm is likely to strengthen further as it continues tracking its current trajectory, making a close approach as a typhoon to the Ogasawara Islands through Oct. 28. Following the close approach, Malou will likely continue strengthening while tracking northeast through early Oct. 29, before weakening into a tropical storm far east of Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, by early Oct. 30. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of early Oct. 28, the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued the following warnings:

• Orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) warnings for storms, heavy rain, and large waves across the Ogasawara Islands, Tokyo Prefecture, through at least Oct. 29.

• Yellow large wave advisories across the Izu Islands, Tokyo Prefecture, through at least Oct. 29.

Heavy rainfall of up to 18 cm (7 inches) is forecast over the Ogasawara Islands through Oct. 29. Large waves of up to 10 m (33 feet) are likely Oct. 28 with wave heights decreasing to 9 m (30 feet) Oct. 29.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities in Ogasawara Village have opened three evacuation centers in advance of the storm to accept voluntary evacuations.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas over the coming days to the Ogasawara and Izu islands, Tokyo Prefecture, Japan. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems.

Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency (Japanese)