North Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm Mindulle tracking northeastward in the North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 2 /update 10

Event

Tropical Storm Mindulle is tracking northeastward in the North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 2. As of 06:00 JST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 506 km (314 miles) southeast of Misawa, Japan. Forecast models indicate the system will weaken further as it continues northeastward and remains adjacent to the eastern coast of Japan then the Kuril Islands through early Oct. 3. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

Authorities ordered evacuations for at least 7,613 people from ​​Hachijo Town, Tokyo Prefecture, as well as at least 102,848 people from southern and eastern Chiba Prefecture Oct. 1. As of early Oct. 2, all evacuation orders have been lifted and most power has been restored. Around 10 households in Minamiboso and Sammu cities in Chiba Prefecture as well as 10 households in Hitachiota City, Ibaraki Prefecture, are without power as of early Oct. 2.

Reports indicate the storm injured at least 16 people, including six from Ibaraki Prefecture and 10 from Kanagawa Prefecture. Two buildings in Ibaraki Prefecture and one building each from Tochigi and Chiba prefectures were damaged.

Government Advisories
As of Oct. 2, Japanese officials have issued the following advisories and warnings.

• Orange (the middle level on a three-tier scale) large wave warnings: Eastern Fukushima and eastern Miyagi prefectures

• Yellow heavy rain and strong wind warnings: The rest of the affected area

Authorities will probably issue new advisories as the system approaches land. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to southeastern and eastern Japan through Oct. 2. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with inadequate stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days.

Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. Wave heights of up to 7 m (23 feet) are forecast over the Kanto and Tohoku regions while waves of up to 6 m (20 feet) are likely over the Izu Islands through Oct. 2.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Due to large waves, the Tomei Expressway was closed between Fuji Interchange and Shimizu Junction while the Seisho By-Pass connecting Oiso Town and Odawara City in Kanagawa Prefecture was closed between Oiso Higashi and Hayakawa interchanges. As of early Oct. 2, both have since reopened. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Multiple trains had been suspended or delayed due to the heavy rains and strong winds. Most trains are scheduled to resume operations around 12:00 Oct. 2 after damage inspections are completed.

Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports. All Nippon Airways canceled at least four flights between Haneda Airport (HND) and Hachijojima Airport (HAC) while Japan Airlines canceled 122 flights from Japan Oct. 1. Skymark Airlines and Air Do canceled at least 33 and 12 flights respectively from Haneda Airport (HND) while Jetstar and Peach Aviation canceled at least 20 and 2 flights respectively from Narita International Airport (NRT) Oct. 1. Most flights are scheduled to resume Oct. 2.

MOL Ferry has canceled the Sunflower Ferry between Oarai Port, Ibaraki Prefecture, and Tomakomai Port, Hokkaido, through at least Oct. 3.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to the presence of incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or typhoon conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency