Ethiopia: Authorities declare nationwide state of emergency Nov. 2 /update 4

Event

Authorities in Ethiopia have declared a nationwide state of emergency (SoE) as of Nov. 2. The action comes amid heavy fighting between the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), formerly known as the Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) supported by regional militias. TDF forces have made significant advances in recent days and reportedly control large areas in the south of the Amhara region, including the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, both located fewer than 260 km (162 miles) northeast of Addis Ababa. The TDF advance and gains by their allies from the Oromo Liberation Army-Shanne (OLA-S) have raised concerns of a threat to the capital; authorities in Addis Ababa told residents to register their weapons and prepare to defend the city Nov. 2.

The SoE takes effect immediately and will last for six months. Under the SoE, the government can impose a curfew, disrupt transport and travel, and indefinitely detain anyone suspected of having links with a terrorist group. Local administrations in some areas also could also be disbanded and replaced with military leaders.

The US Embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert Nov. 2, advising US nationals to reconsider travel to Ethiopia and encouraging those who are in the country to consider making preparations to leave. The alert also noted federal authorities had restricted access to the A2 highway connecting Addis Ababa to cities in the north, leading to transport disruptions and a non-permissive travel environment. The British government also updated its travel advice for Ethiopia as of Nov. 2, recommending against all travel to Amhara Regional State and western parts of Afar Regional State.

A heightened military presence in the Afar, Amhara, and Oromia regions is expected in the coming weeks, along with potential enhanced security measures in major cities and towns, including curfews, roadblocks, additional states of emergency, movement restrictions, and disruptions of communication and internet services. Acts of civil unrest or large celebratory gatherings are possible in response to battlefield developments.

Context

Despite recent advances by anti-government forces, it remains unclear at this point whether or not a combined TDF/OLA-S push on Addis Ababa would be successful. However, military confrontation will likely intensify in the coming weeks as ENDF forces launch counter-offensive operations against the TDF. Confrontations are likely in the Afar, Amhara, and Oromia regions, where the TDF and OLA-S reportedly maintain a high presence. The ENDF is likely to conduct further airstrikes against TDF positions in Mekelle and other urban centers. The TDF and OLA-S will likely attempt to advance deeper into Amhara, Afar, and Oromia regions targeting major cities.

As of Nov. 2, TDF forces reportedly controlled the towns of Habru, Gerba, Bati, and Burka and are advancing towards the strategic town of Mille. The TDF's advance in the area, particularly Mille, is motivated by the strategic importance of transport links through the region, which connects Ethiopia with Djibouti.

Furthermore, the OLA-S, an insurgent group active in military operations against the federal government in western Oromia and the North Shewa zone, has joined TDF’s offensive and reportedly taken control of Karakore, Kemise, and Senbete towns in the Amhara region. These towns are located 205 km (127 miles), 232 km (144 miles), and 200 km (124 miles) northeast of Addis Ababa respectively. The TDF and OLA-S have formed a military alliance aimed at overthrowing the federal government.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions and surrounding areas impacted by fighting until the situation stabilizes. Persons in Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions should liaise with trusted contacts.

Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted for attack, including power stations, media outlets, communications infrastructure, and transport facilities. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building.

Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If travel is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.