Ethiopia: Security situation likely to remain volatile in Tigray and Amhara regions through at least mid-November /update 3

Event

The security situation in Tigray and Amhara regions will likely remain volatile through at least mid-November amid ongoing hostilities between the Tigray Defense Force (TDF), formerly known as the Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), and troops of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) supported by regional militias. Authorities in Amhara Region declared a State of Emergency (SoE) Oct. 31 after TDF forces reportedly seized the key cities of Dessie and Komblocka. Under the SoE, most government institutions within the state will discontinue regular services; a curfew is also in place from 20:00. As of Nov. 1, heavy clashes continue in Chifra (Afar region); TDF's advance into areas in Afar is motivated the strategic importance of transport links through the region that connects Ethiopia with Djibouti.

Since mid-October, the ENDF has increased aerial and ground bombardments against TDF positions and conducted several airstrikes in Tigray's capital, Mekelle, targeting TDF-affiliated facilities. A strike on Oct. 28 reportedly killed at least 10 civilians and injured several others.

Furthermore, the Oromo Liberation Army- Shanne (OLA-S), an insurgent group actively involved in military operations against the federal government in Western Oromia and the North Shewa zone, has reportedly taken control of Karakore, Kemis, and Senbete towns in Amhara Region. The TDF and OLA-S formed a military alliance to overthrow the federal government.

Outside the conflict zone, profiling and detentions of ethnic-Tigrayans have continued in urban centers outside Tigray, including Addis Ababa. Anti-Western sentiment has also reportedly increased due to the perceived negative influence of European countries and the US in the conflict. Incidents targeting foreign nationals have, however, not been reported.

Military confrontation will likely intensify in the coming weeks as ENDF forces launch counter-offensive operations against the TDF. Confrontations are likely in the Afar and Amhara regions, where the TDF reportedly maintains a high presence. The ENDF is likely to conduct further airstrikes against TDF positions in Mekelle and other urban centers. The TDF will likely attempt to advance deeper into Amhara and Afar regions targeting major cities. A heightened military presence in the Afar and Amhara regions is expected in the coming weeks, along with potential enhanced security measures enacted in major cities and towns, including curfews, roadblocks, states of emergency, movement restrictions, and disruptions of communication and internet services. Acts of civil unrest or large celebratory gatherings are possible in response to any battlefield successes or setbacks.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Tigray Region and surrounding areas impacted by fighting until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted for attack, including power stations and media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Tigray should liaise with trusted contacts. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If travel is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.