Europe: Adverse weather forecast across southern and eastern regions through at least Nov. 9 /update 3

Event

Thunderstorms, heavy rain, strong winds, and possible flooding are forecast for parts of southern and eastern Europe through at least Nov. 9. The affected area includes Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as southern Italy. Authorities have issued the following warnings across the affected area:

• Orange heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings (second-highest level on a four-tier scale): southern and eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina; far southern Italy

• Yellow heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings: the rest of the affected area

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Authorities evacuated residents from hundreds of homes in the suburbs of Sarajevo City along the Bosnia, Tilava, and Zeljeznica rivers and in the town of Konjic due to heavy rain and flooding. Most of Sarajevo City was without power for several hours on Nov. 6. As of Nov. 8, most of the power has since been restored. The rain has since abated, however, more rainfall is likely over the coming days. The additional rainfall may exacerbate the situation, resulting in floods or flash floods over already saturated soil and taxed drainage systems.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across the affected area. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Additional power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Multiple local and regional roads have flooded, cutting off traffic. The Bosna River overflowed, flooding roads in Zenica City and Visoko, Kakanj, and Breza towns, while Trnovo Municipality was cut off due to the floods.

The disruptive weather may cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

MeteoAlarm
Bosnia and Herzegovina Meteorological Institute
Italy Servizio Meteorologico (Italian)