Nicaragua: Nationwide general election to be held Nov. 7

Event

Nicaragua will hold a nationwide general election Nov. 7 to determine the presidency, the National Assembly legislature, and the country's delegates to the Central American Parliament. Authorities will likely implement increased security measures in the lead-up to the vote and at polling stations on election day. Organizations associated with the opposition, in particular, may be subject to harassment by security forces. Political events are expected to conclude Nov. 3, when the campaign season officially ends and the "election silence" period begins before the Nov. 7 vote.

Transport disruptions may occur around polling stations during the vote. Demonstrations are also possible prior to and during the election. Nicaraguan police have a history of using force to disperse political gatherings and harass political figures, namely those associated with the opposition. Since late 2018, the government has considered unauthorized public protests illegal, but in practice has targeted opposition-associated events only.

Security forces may use riot control measures, including tear gas and baton charges, during any move to disperse crowds of activists; mass arrests are also likely. Demonstrators could attempt to gather near government buildings. Any protests that do occur may also prompt localized business and transport disruptions in addition to a harsh response by security forces.

Context

The Nov. 7 election in Nicaragua occurs amid a backdrop of deteriorated civil liberties and an uneasy calm since a nationwide protest movement threatened the government of President Daniel Ortega in 2018. Although Ortega has managed to hold onto power and has moved to jail most opposition leaders that would have stood the best chance at challenging his re-election bid, there remains a latent risk in Nicaragua for protests to reignite despite government restrictions.

Ortega is expected to win re-election due to the lack of viable opposition candidates, but his anticipated win may then trigger a new round of unrest against his administration. Currently, however, levels of unrest have been low due to Ortega's criminalization of political protests and his deployment of security forces throughout the country in a crackdown meant to quell the 2018 protest movement and subsequent anti-government unrest.

Advice

Exercise caution in the lead-up to and during voting, particularly near large gatherings and in the proximity of polling stations. Make allowances for possible localized transport disruptions near said stations. Avoid any demonstrations as a precaution.