Caribbean Sea: Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 tracking westward as of the evening of Nov. 13 east-northeast of Honduras

Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 is tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea the evening of Nov. 13. As of 19:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 415 km (260 miles) east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a tropical storm the afternoon of Nov. 14 as it tracks westward and makes a close approach to northern Honduras. The storm will maintain its strength as it tracks westward off northeastern Honduras through the afternoon of Nov. 15. The system is likely to turn sharply to track southwestward through the afternoon of Nov. 16 before making another sharp turn to track northwestward through the afternoon of Nov. 17. The storm is then forecast to make landfall over Corozal District in Belize early Nov. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of the evening of Nov. 13, authorities have issued a hurricane watch for Punta Castilla in Honduras to the Honduras-Nicaragua border and a tropical storm watch for the Honduras-Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Nov. 15, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Nov. 14. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Nov. 14. Rainfall totals of up to 25-50 cm (10-20 inches), with maximum amounts of 76 cm (30 inches), are likely over portions of northern Honduras through at least Nov. 19. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rain with localized totals of around 38 cm (15 inches) are forecast through Nov. 19. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of landslides.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.