Iraq: Protests ongoing near Green Zone in Baghdad Dec. 27

Event

Hundreds of protesters have gathered near the Green Zone in Baghdad the morning of Dec. 27 to denounce the results of Iraq's Oct. 10 parliamentary elections. Local media reports indicate protesters have blocked several roads leading into the city; unconfirmed reports claim security forces have also closed off several roads leading into the Green Zone.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain a heightened security posture near the Green Zone, including around governmental buildings, until the situation stabilizes. Localized transport disruptions are likely in the area through at least late Dec. 27. Clashes are possible if demonstrators engage in acts of public violence or ignore orders to disperse.

Context

Turnout was low in Iraq's Oct. 10 parliamentary elections - only about 43 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot, compared to 44.5 percent in the last election in 2018. Prominent Shi'a cleric and nationalist political leader Muqtada al-Sadr's Saairun Alliance won the plurality of the Oct. 10 vote, securing 73 of the parliament's 329 seats. Notably, Iran-backed parties associated with Shi'a militias lost seats, only securing around 20 compared to their 48 seats gained in the 2018 vote. The Fatah Alliance, representing pro-Iran militias, has accordingly vowed to "not accept these fabricated results, whatever the cost," raising the likelihood of post-election unrest and violence, especially if pro-Iran militias are left out of an eventual governing coalition.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Green Zone and the surrounding area due to the potential for clashes. Avoid all protests. Plan for localized transport and business disruptions. If violence occurs nearby, immediately depart the area and seek shelter at a safe nongovernment building. Heed all official security and transport advisories.