Madagascar: Insecurity likely to persist in southern regions through at least mid-January due to severe drought

Event

Insecurity will almost certainly persist in southern Madagascar through at least mid-January, due to an ongoing drought, affecting more than 1.3 million people. On Dec. 7, armed bandits, known as Dahalo, ambushed members of the Young Progress NGO, working with the World Food Programme (WFP), in the district of Amboasary-Sud. The four NGO employees were traveling from Tranomaro to Ampiliria when they were attacked; the bandits stole all their valuables before killing one and injuring another. Security forces managed to arrest the assailants who confessed they were not targeting the NGO, rather the valuables of the victims.

Heightened security and associated transport disruptions, such as roadblocks and checkpoints, are likely in the impacted area in the near term. Further armed attacks remain likely. Protests in response to the ongoing drought and rising insecurity are also possible.

Context

In southern Madagascar, 1.3 million people are currently in need of food assistance due to an ongoing drought, the most significant one for the past 40 years. In Tranomaro, the situation has reached "stage 5", the most severe on the United Nations (UN) scale. In the region, the number of severely food insecure people has tripled since 2019. Related security incidents are also on the rise. Authorities have categorized Tranomaro as a red zone due to the presence of bandits. The deterioration of living conditions due to the drought and the Covid-19 pandemic has increased the risk of criminality in the area.

Advice

Exercise caution in the affected region. Heed the directives of the authorities. Liaise with trusted contacts before traveling in rural areas and at night outside of major urban centers. Travel with identification to facilitate movement through checkpoints.