New Caledonia: Protest possible territorywide as of Dec. 13 following independence referendum /update 1

Event

Protests are possible in New Caledonia after a majority of voters decided to remain part of France in an independence referendum. Pro-independence and local Kanak groups boycotted the poll, and their supporters could hold demonstrations against the outcome in the coming days. Although no actions have occurred as of Dec. 13, more radical supporters could engage in violence or vandalism and may target French-owned businesses. Roadblocks are also possible, including on main routes.

Security forces will likely remain on high alert throughout the archipelago amid concerns of potential unrest. The central government deployed police, armed forces, and equipment in the territory ahead of the vote. Localized business and transport disruptions are possible near any demonstrations that emerge.

Context

Tensions around the referendum increased ahead of the vote, as Kanak groups requested that the central government postpone the vote so the community could mourn following a spike in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Officials in Paris declined to move the date, citing the need to hold the poll before presidential and legislative elections in France in 2022. Kanak leaders then called for a boycott of the vote and did not register to take part in the campaign period.

Although French leaders have hailed the referendum outcome, in which more than 96 percent of voters chose to remain part of France, approximately 56 percent of the population abstained from the referendum calling the legitimacy of the vote into question. The lack of Kanak participation could serve as the basis for demonstrations in the near term. However, unrest is not a foregone conclusion, as many Kanak leaders hope to reengage with a new government on the territory's future following elections in mainland France in 2022.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations and roadblocks due to the potential for security disturbances. Check with local, trusted sources for updates on possible unrest, protest locations, and roadblocks, as organizers may not announce actions in advance. Confirm all business appointments and transport reservations in the days ahead of the vote. Carry proper identification at all times and follow the instructions of local authorities.