Mozambique: Insecurity likely to persist in Cabo Delgado Province and into Niassa Province through January /update 1

Event

Insecurity is likely to persist in Cabo Delgado Province as Islamic State (IS)-supported militants continue to carry out attacks and fight government forces. Despite a significant military presence in Cabo Delgado, notably of Mozambican and Rwandan forces, reports of violence toward civilians continue to be reported in recent weeks, as militants regroup and modify their strategy to conduct attacks in smaller groups.

Insecurity has continued to spread into Niassa Province, where militants have begun to operate in order to bypass the significant security force presence in Cabo Delgado. Mecula and Muembe districts have been particularly vulnerable to attacks. Numerous violent attacks have also been reported, targeting the Niassa National Reserve Dec. 2, a police contingent Nov. 27, and civilians Nov. 29. Other targeted attacks on these groups have been reported on multiple occasions. Reports of kidnapping, theft and disruption to daily activities have also been logged. The precise location of these incidents remains unconfirmed. The insurgents' activities have also prompted displacements of communities - as of mid-January, over 3,000 people are reportedly displaced. On Dec. 16, the US Embassy announced the prohibition of its personnel from traveling to Mecula and Marrupa districts in Niassa Province until further notice.

Militant attacks will almost certainly persist in the coming weeks absent any military intervention. Security forces will likely establish security checkpoints, which could prompt localized business and transport disruptions.

Context

Mozambique's north, particularly Cabo Delgado Province, has seen a notable escalation in attacks on security forces since October 2017 linked to alleged Islamist militants under the name Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo (ASWJ). Local community leaders blamed the attacks on a group of radicalized youths calling themselves Al-Shabaab, without any proven connection with the Somalia-based group. Since 2020 the militant group has shown an ability to temporarily seize urban centers, increasing concerns that the violence could pose further threats to economically important oil and gas investment in the province as companies increase their investment in the nascent sector. Following the deployment of the Southern African Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), combined local and international forces have retaken key urban areas occupied by insurgents. On Nov. 24, SAMIM's deployment was extended until April 2022.

The militants' self-reliance may contribute to the difficulty the government has had in tracking down and identifying its support networks; however, the group may be receiving support from other regional militant groups. The extent of support from IS is unclear.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Cabo Delgado and Niassa provinces until government forces manage to stabilize the security landscape. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Liaise with trusted security partners for further information. Travel in convoy after a full security review of the route and avoid all travel after dark. Review and update contingency plans. Carry personal identification documents while traveling throughout Cabo Delgado and Niassa provinces. Heed all security personnel instructions.