Mozambique: Tropical Storm Ana tracking westward after making landfall in Nampula Province Jan. 24 /update 2

Event

Tropical Storm Ana is tracking westward across northern Mozambique after making landfall to the south of Nacala in Angoche District, Nampula Province, Jan. 24. As of 14:00 CAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 283 km (176 miles) southwest of Nacala. Forecast models indicate the system will weaken as it tracks westward across northern Mozambique and southern Malawi Jan. 24-25 before dissipating south of Tete in northwestern Mozambique Jan. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Officials at the Mozambican National Institute of Meteorology have issued red tropical depression/tropical storm warnings for Inhambane, Nampula, Manica, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia provinces, as well as orange heavy rain warnings for Cabo Delgado and Niassa provinces. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are likely in the red and orange warning areas over the coming hours.

Malawi's Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services has issued a tropical depression warning stating that the storm system could bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Mulanje, Thyolo, Phalombe, Chiradzulu, Balaka, Machinga, Blantyre, Chikwawa, Nsanje, Zomba, Mangochi, Mwanza, Neno, Ntcheu, Dedza, Lilongwe, and Salima districts over the coming hours. Rainfall of over 15 cm (6 inches) per day and winds exceeding 80 kph (50 mph) are possible across southern Malawi.

The Malagasy Directorate General of Meteorology is maintaining heavy rainfall warnings across northern and central parts of Madagascar after the storm system crossed the country as a tropical depression Jan. 22-23, resulting in casualties and widespread disruptions. The storm's impacts have left at least 34 people dead and more than 55,000 displaced in Madagascar. As of Jan. 24, authorities have issued red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) warnings for Alaotra-Mangoro, Analanjirofo, Betsiboka, Boeny, and Sofia regions as well as Besalampy, Maintirano, Toamasina 1-11, Brickaville, and Vatomandry districts.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. Strong winds could cause structural damage and down trees and power lines, leading to power outages in affected areas.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Mozambique Airlines (LAM) suspended domestic flights to northern and central regions of the country Jan. 24; further flight disruptions are possible in the coming days. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical depression conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.