Nigeria: Pro-Biafra protests possible in Abuja and southeastern states through at least Feb. 16 /update 5

Event

Protests supporting Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) leader, Nnamdi Kanu, are possible in Abuja and southeastern states through at least Feb. 16. During Kanu's hearing Jan. 19, the Federal High Court of Abuja adjourned the case to Feb. 16, due to new charges filed against the separatist leader. Although IPOB activists have announced no specific plans yet, protests and related actions such as strikes (also called stay-at-home actions) are likely in southeastern states of Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, and Rivers, particularly on Mondays. In the capital, demonstrations may occur in the vicinity of the Federal High Court of Abuja or the Department of State Services, where Kanu is detained.

Security forces will likely deploy to monitor any protest or related action in Abuja or across the southeast region. Should they occur, protests or stay-at-home actions may affect business and transport operations. In the event protests do occur, the potential for clashes with security forces is elevated. Attacks and intimidation against those seen as not adhering to any IPOB strike calls are also possible.

Amid the trial in Abuja scheduled for Feb. 16, officials will likely increase security and prohibit vehicle and pedestrian movement near the court. During previous hearings, tensions arose in the vicinity of the court as security forces allegedly barred Kanu's legal representatives access to the courtroom. Minor clashes opposing security forces and Kanu’s supporters occurred Jan. 19. However, there were no injuries reported.

Context

Kanu faces numerous charges bordering treason and terrorism crimes; he has pleaded not guilty to all charges. IPOB activists have been calling for protests and strikes since August to press the government to release Kanu; the actions have resulted in violence and significant business disruptions in the southeast. Protests by supporters of IPOB and Kanu may persist in the southeast in the coming months, depending on the court verdict.

IPOB seeks the independence of the southeastern region following the previous attempt at independence by the Republic of Biafra, which sparked a three-year civil war that ended in 1970. Deep divisions remain between Biafra separatists and the central government; the Federal High Court of Abuja labeled the group a terrorist organization in 2017. The so-called Biafra region geographically includes various southeastern states, including Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, and Rivers, inhabited by the Igbo people.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the potential for clashes. Anticipate business closures and disruptions to transportation and other services. Keep away from any location where security forces appear to be deploying; exit the area at the first sign of any confrontation. Heed the instructions of local authorities.