Saudi Arabia: Drone and missile attacks primarily targeting southern regions likely to persist through at least March 2022

Event

Shi'a Al-Houthi rebels in northern Yemen will likely continue to conduct cross-border attacks targeting Saudi military bases, civilian infrastructure, and oil facilities using weaponized drones and missiles through at least March. The Al-Houthi rebels claim to possess several short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) of 30-1,000 km (18-620 miles) ranges; however, their precise tactical capabilities remain unclear. Attacks will probably continue to mainly impact Asir, Jazan, and Najran provinces along the Saudi-Yemeni border. Additionally, longer-range attacks against military bases, civilian areas, and critical infrastructure located deeper within Saudi territory - including targets near Mecca and Riyadh - will continue to be periodically reported.

Short-term disruptions and occasional casualties are possible at targeted locations following such attacks. The Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces (RSADF) employs a multitiered air defense system capable of effectively intercepting longer-range weapons and largely negating the impact of such incidents. Nevertheless, shorter-range weapons - such as mortars, light and medium artillery, and small tactical drones - are much less susceptible to interception; therefore, they pose a higher risk that is primarily limited to immediate border areas. Attacks using such short-range systems have resulted in higher numbers of civilian and military casualties in areas within 10 km (6 miles) of the Saudi-Yemeni border.

The lack of objective sources covering the conflict in Yemen between the Saudi Arabia-led coalition and Al-Houthi rebels makes it extremely difficult to independently verify reports of longer-range weaponized drone and ballistic missile attacks or intercepts within Saudi territory. Each side relies heavily on propaganda and misdirection in the media and works hard to shape the narrative to suit its policy aims. As is often the case when reports of alleged drone or ballistic missile attacks or intercepts emerge, neither Riyadh nor the Yemeni rebels provide much, if any, verifiable proof to support their respective claims.

Context

Al-Houthi-launched drone and missile attacks targeting Saudi Arabia's southern and southwestern governorates have been a common occurrence since 2015 when the kingdom began its military intervention in Yemen. Given the Al-Houthis' entrenched positions in northern Yemen and Saudi security forces' apparent inability to defeat them militarily, the cross-border launches into the kingdom's territory will probably continue indefinitely.

The use of drones and missiles represents a relatively inexpensive option for the Al-Houthis to cause maximum disruption to Saudi Arabia. The Al-Houthis' doctrine of maximum disruption is evident in the number of locations they have attacked - including targets at or near Abha International Airport (AHB), King Khalid Air Base (KMX), King Abdulaziz International Airport (JED), Jizan Regional Airport (GIZ), Riyadh, Khamis Mushait, and Mecca.

The frequency and scale of Al-Houthi cross-border attacks targeting Saudi Arabia involving such weapons platforms have significantly increased since early February 2021. At the very least, this indicates a high probability of the existence of a mature missile and drone assembly industry within Al-Houthi-controlled territory. In order to maintain this industry, the Al-Houthis combine Iranian-supplied guidance systems, drone engines, and fuel components with domestically available military hardware and imported dual-use materials such as fiberglass. As a consequence, the Al-Houthis can theoretically maintain a sustained campaign of weaponized drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, Saudi and US authorities believe that Iran has played a more direct role in some of the attacks - especially the Sept. 14, 2019 attack on critical Aramco oil installations in Abqaiq and Khurais in Eastern Province. The scale and apparent sophistication of the attack have led to suggestions of either direct or indirect Iranian involvement. Officials in both Riyadh and Washington allege there is strong evidence that the drones and missiles used were launched from areas northeast of Saudi Arabia, suggesting the attacks may have originated from Iraqi or Iranian territory. The Saudi and US governments have dismissed Al-Houthi rebel claims of responsibility for the Aramco incident.

Advice

If incoming fire or drone activity is reported in central and southern Saudi Arabia, stay indoors away from windows and exterior walls and, if possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Saudi Arabia's border governorates. Persons in southern Saudi Arabia should maintain contact with their diplomatic mission.