Turkey: Adverse weather forecast across eastern regions through at least Jan. 14

Event

Severe weather, including heavy rainfall, sleet, and heavy snow, is forecast across parts of eastern Turkey through at least Jan. 14. The affected region includes Artvin, Giresun, Rize, and Trabzon provinces in the Eastern Black Sea Region; Diyarbakir and Mardin provinces in Southeastern Anatolia Region; and Batman, Bingol, Bitlis, Hakkari, Mus, Siirt, Sirnak, Tunceli, and Van provinces in Eastern Anatolia Region. Between 20-30 cm (8-12 inches) of snow are possible in areas of high elevation, with heavy to torrential rainfall in some areas of lower elevation. Ice, frost, and flooding will likely cause hazardous travel conditions and there is a risk of avalanches in mountainous areas.

As of Jan. 13, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued orange (second-highest level on a four-tier scale) avalanche warnings for Hakkari and Van provinces. Yellow warnings for heavy rain, heavy snow, and avalanches are in place across the rest of the affected area. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Heavy precipitation (including rain and snow) is expected across the affected area. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Roads connecting dozens of villages were closed in Hakkari province Jan. 13. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall. The disruptive weather may cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Turkish State Meteorological Service