21 Jan 2022 | 03:03 PM UTC
Turkey: Severe weather forecast nationwide through at least Jan. 27 /update 1
Heavy rainfall, snowfall, and cold temperatures forecast across Turkey through at least Jan. 27. Disruptions possible.
Event
A weather system moving is forecast to bring heavy rainfall, snowfall, cold temperatures, strong winds, and thunderstorms across Turkey through at least Jan. 27. The adverse weather is forecast to impact western Turkey from Jan. 21, before spreading to central Turkey Jan. 22-23. By Jan. 24 severe weather conditions are expected across the whole country.
As of Jan. 21, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued several meteorological warnings for severe weather events for locations across western and central Turkey. Heavy rainfall is expected in Istanbul in Marmara Region Jan. 21; Izmir and Aydin provinces in Aegean Region Jan. 21-22; eastern Mediterranean Region Jan. 22-23; and Sinop and Samsun provinces in central Black Sea Region Jan. 22-24. Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are forecast for Mugla province in Aegean Region Jan. 21-22. Heavy snowfall is expected in parts of southern and eastern Marmara and northern Aegean regions Jan. 21-22; western Black Sea Region Jan. 21-23; northern Central Anatolia and inland Black Sea regions Jan. 22; and Gaziantep and Kilis provinces in Southeastern Anatolia Region Jan. 22-24.
Authorities have issued the following warnings for western and central Turkey Jan. 21-22:
Orange snowfall warnings (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale): Amasya, Ankara, Antalya, Bartin, Bolu, Cankiri, Corum, Duzce, Kastamonu, Karabuk, Karaman, Kirikkale, Konya, Samsun, Sinop, and Zonguldak provinces.
Orange rainfall warnings: Aydin, Izmir, Samsun, and Sinop provinces.
Yellow snowfall warnings: Adana, Afyonkarahisar, Balikesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Canakkale, Eskisehir, Gaziantep, Hatay, Isparta, Kilis, Kirsehir, Kocaeli, Kutahya, Kahramanmaras, Mersin, Osmaniye, Sakarya, Usak, Yalova, and Yozgat provinces.
Yellow rainfall warnings: Adana, Antalya, Hatay, Istanbul, Mersin, Mugla, and Osmaniye provinces.
Yellow wind warnings: Aksaray, Giresun, Gumushane, Karaman, Kayseri, Konya, Nevsehir, Nigde, Ordu, Rize, Sivas, Tokat, Trabzon, and Yozgat provinces.
Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.
Hazardous Conditions
The adverse weather could bring rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across Turkey in the coming days. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.
Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur across Turkey due to the adverse weather.
Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.
The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
