Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone 11 has formed and is tracking south-southeastwards in the Coral Sea as of early Feb. 9

Event

Tropical Cyclone 11 has formed and is tracking south-southeastwards in the Coral Sea as of early Feb. 9. As of 11:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 220 km (137 miles) south-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a category 1 tropical cyclone as it turns to track generally southwestwards before making landfall over Mare Island, Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia early Feb. 10. The storm system will strengthen further as it makes a close approach to Isle of Pines, New Caledonia late Feb. 10. The storm is then forecast to intensify into a category 2 tropical cyclone as it turns to track southwards before making a close approach to the Territory of Norfolk Island, Australia early Feb. 12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Feb. 9, the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has warned of heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding over low-lying areas, areas close to river banks, and coastal areas. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are forecast across Vanuatu waters. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia (French)
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department