Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Dovi tracking southeastwards in the Coral Sea as of late Feb. 9 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Dovi has strengthened into a category 1 tropical cyclone and is tracking southeastwards in the Coral Sea as of late Feb. 9. As of 23:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 420 km (261 miles) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain category 1 tropical cyclone strength as it turns to track southwestwards making a close approach to the south of Mare Island, Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia, Feb. 10.

The storm system will continue tracking generally southwestwards as it makes a close approach to the south of L'Ile des Pins, New Caledonia, late Feb. 10. Dovi is then forecast to intensify into a category 2 tropical cyclone as it turns to track southwards and then south-southeastwards, making a close approach to the Territory of Norfolk Island, Australia Feb. 12. The storm system will become a Subtropical Low as it approaches northwestern New Zealand late Feb. 12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Feb. 10, the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has issued a tropical cyclone warning for Shefa and Tafea provinces. Gale force winds of 63 kph (39 mph) and gusts of up to 87 kph (54 mph) are expected in Shefa and Tafea provinces. Heavy rainfall could potentially cause flash flooding across Vanuatu through Feb. 11 and rough seas are expected across all Vanuatu waters.

Meteo France New Caledonia has issued a level 2 hurricane alert in Lifou and Mare municipalities from 00:00 Feb. 10. Southern Province and the communes of Houailou, Kouaoua, and Canala are under a level 1 cyclone alert as of 22:00 Feb. 9 and will move to a level 2 hurricane alert from 08:00 Feb. 10. All professional, commercial, and educational activity should cease two hours prior to an area moving into level 2 alert status and people should shelter at home until the alert level has reduced.

The rest of New Caledonia is on cyclone pre-alert status. Wind gusts of over 130 kph (81 mph) and 15-20 cm (6-8 inches) of rainfall are forecast near the center of the storm's trajectory in Lifou and Mare early Feb. 10 and Southern Province late Feb. 10. A marine storm warning has also been issued for South Lagoon, West Lagoon, East Lagoon, and Loyalty waters through at least Feb. 11.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Authorities in New Caledonia have already reported traffic difficulties in the Dumbea River area as of late Feb. 9. Several bus companies across the territory have announced that operations will be suspended Feb. 10-11. Flight disruptions at airports across the affected region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Air Vanuatu (NF) has canceled domestic flights in Vanuatu as of Feb. 9, while Air Caledonie (TY) has canceled all flights in New Caledonia Feb. 10 and warned that disruptions could continue into Feb. 11.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia (French)
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department
Air Vanuatu
Air Caledonie