Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Dovi tracking southward in the Coral Sea as of early Feb. 12 /update 4

Event

Tropical Cyclone Dovi has weakened into a category 2 tropical cyclone and is tracking southward in the Coral Sea as of early Feb. 12. As of 00:01 NFDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,200 km (746 miles) northwest of Auckland, New Zealand.

Forecast models indicate the storm system will weaken as it continues to track southward, making a close approach to Norfolk Island, Australia, early Feb. 12. Dovi is then likely to weaken further as it turns to track southeastward, becoming a post-tropical cyclone as it approaches New Zealand's North Island Feb. 12-13. The storm system is forecast to bring severe weather across large swaths of northern and central New Zealand over the coming days. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur over the short term.

Dovi caused disruptions as it passed Vanuatu and New Caledonia Feb. 9-11, making landfall over L'Ile-des-Pins late Feb. 10. In New Caledonia, heavy rainfall triggered a landslide in Yahoue, damaging a house. The storm forced over 100 people to move to evacuation shelters in Noumea. As of early Feb. 11, hundreds of homes were without power in Noumea; additionally, dozens of homes on Mare and L'Ile-des-Pins islands were still without electricity as of late Feb. 11. Many roads in South Province have been blocked by floodwaters and landslides, and sections of the RT1 in North Province were made impassable due to flooding. The Rai bus network had not resumed service as of Feb. 11. Air Caledonia resumed operations Feb. 11; however, flights to and from Lifou and L'Ile-des-Pins were still experiencing disruptions. In Vanuatu, dozens of families have moved to shelters due to extensive flooding in Port Vila.

Government Advisories
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has canceled a tropical cyclone warning zone previously issued for Norfolk Island as the storm system moves rapidly to the south and away from the territory early Feb. 12. Rough seas are expected to continue in the area through the morning of Feb. 12.

New Zealand's MetService has issued the following warnings across North Island and northern South Island through Feb. 13:

• Orange heavy rain warnings (middle level on a three-tier scale): Waitomo and Taumarunui; Taranaki; Tasman, west of Motueka; Horowhenua and Kapiti; Marlborough Sounds, Richmond and Bryant Ranges, and Rai Valley; Tararua Range; Wellington and Wairarapa, excluding the Tararua District; Eastern Marlborough about and south of Ward; and Tongariro National Park and Taupo about and south of Turangi.

• Yellow heavy rain watches (lowest level on a three-tier scale): Taupo north of Turangi, Taihape away from Tongariro National Park, Whanganui and Manawatu; Tararua District; Ranges of Buller and Nelson Lakes; and the remainder of Marlborough, excluding the areas under warning and Canterbury north of Amberley.

• Yellow strong wind watches: Northland and Auckland, including Great Barrier Island; Taranaki; Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds; and Tasman and Buller.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and in locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports across the affected region and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia (French)
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department
New Zealand MetService
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
Air Caledonie