Coral Sea: Tropical Disturbance Nine tracking east-southeastwards in the Coral Sea as of late Feb. 3 /update 1

Tropical Disturbance Nine tracking east-southeastwards in the Coral Sea Feb. 3. Close approach to Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia, Feb. 4-5.

Event

Tropical Disturbance Nine is tracking east-southeastwards in the Coral Sea late Feb. 3. As of 23:00 NCT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 943 km (586 miles) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly as it tracks generally southeastwards, intensifying to a Tropical Low as it approaches New Caledonia, making a close approach to the Loyalty Islands Feb. 5. The storm system will strengthen further into a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone as it moves into the South Pacific, where it will first turn in a more southerly direction, then in a southwesterly direction Feb. 7-8. Although no direct landfall is forecast, the storm system will likely impact much of New Caledonia and southern Vanuatu Feb. 4-5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Feb. 3, Meteo France New Caledonia has issued orange level heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale) for the Loyalty Islands, the eastern and northern coast of the main island of Grande Terre, and Belep Island. Yellow warnings for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are in place across the rest of the territory.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has issued isolated heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings over the northern and central islands of Vanuatu Feb. 3-4.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.