Madagascar: Severe Tropical Storm Emnati tracking southwestward over southern Madagascar Feb. 23 /update 7

Event

Severe Tropical Storm Emnati is tracking southwestward over southern Madagascar Feb. 23 following landfall in Manakara District around 00:01 EAT. As of 09:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 537 km (334 miles) south-southwest of Antananarivo. Forecast models indicate that the system will continue to weaken slightly as it tracks southwestward over southern Madagascar through Feb. 23 and moves into the Mozambique Channel in the Androy Region late Feb. 23. Emnati is then forecast to weaken to a moderate tropical storm as it turns to track south-southwestward then southward into the Indian Ocean Feb. 24-25, becoming a subtropical low-pressure system. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Officials pre-emptively evacuated more than 30,000 people ahead of the storm's approach, mostly from Amoron'i Mania, Atsimo Atsinanana, Atsinanana, Fitovinany, Matsiatra Ambony, and Vatovavy regions, to 95 evacuation shelters across the south of the country. Initial reports indicate heavy rainfall has triggered rising water levels and flooding in Mahanoro, Manakara, Mananjary, Nosy Varika, and Vatomandry districts. There have also been reports of wind damage and coastal flooding in some of these districts. As the impacts from the storm are ongoing and are likely affecting communications in affected areas, it will be some time before authorities can conduct full damage assessments and the true extent of the storm's impact is known.

Government Advisories
As of Feb. 23, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has warned of continued heavy rainfall in southeastern and southern regions. Rough seas are likely to remain, especially along the southeastern and southern coasts. The following cyclone warnings have been issued:

• Red imminent danger alert (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Androy, Anosy, Atsimo Atsinanana, and Ihorombe regions; and Ampanihya, Benenitra, and Betioky districts.

• Yellow threat alert: Ankazoabo, Beroroha, Morombe, Sakaraha, and Toliara I-II distrcts.

• Blue post-cyclone vigilance alert: Amoron'i Mania, Fitovinany, Matsiatra Ambony, and Vatovavy regions.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in affected areas and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)