Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone Emnati tracking southwestward over Madagascar early Feb. 23 following landfall in Manakara District around 00:01 EAT /update 6

Event

Tropical Cyclone Emnati is tracking southwestward over Madagascar early Feb. 23 following landfall in Manakara District around 00:01 EAT. As of 00:01 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 330 km (205 miles) south-southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken into a severe tropical storm as it tracks southwestward over southern Madagascar through Feb. 23 and move into the Mozambique Channel at the Androy Region early Feb. 24 as a moderate tropical storm. Emnati is then forecast to turn to track southward into the Indian Ocean Feb. 24-25, becoming a subtropical low-pressure system. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Disruptions occurred across parts of Mauritius and Reunion as the storm system passed to the north of the islands Feb. 19-21. Mauritius' Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) suspended operations late Feb. 19 through late Feb. 20. Reunion's Roland Garros Airport (RUN) suspended all flights from 13:30 RET Feb. 20 until 15:00 Feb. 21. Schools and other educational institutions were closed across Mauritius and Reunion on Feb. 21-22. In Reunion, authorities have prohibited swimming in Mangue, Bleu, and Ilet Bethleem basins in Saint-Benoit due to poor water quality. Route du Littoral is likely to reopen early Feb. 23 while the mountain roads will remain closed through at least early Feb. 24.

As of late Feb. 22, officials have evacuated more than 30,000 people mostly from Amoron'i Mania, Atsimo Atsinanana, Atsinanana, Fitovinany, Haute Matsiatra, and Vatovavy regions in Madagascar to 95 evacuation shelters across the south of the country.

Government Advisories
As of early Feb. 23, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has warned of likely widespread flooding due to heavy rains, especially in the Androy, Anosy, Atsimo-Andrefana, Atsimo Atsinanana, Ihorombe, Fitovinany, Matsiatra Ambony, and Vatovavy regions. Rough seas are likely to remain, especially along the southeastern coast. The following cyclone warnings have been issued:

• Red imminent danger alert (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Amoron'i Mania, Atsimo Atsinanana, Fitovinany, Ihorombe, Matsiatra Ambony, and Vatovavy regions.

• Yellow threat alert: Androy, Ansoy, and Atsimo Andrefana regions.

A red heavy swell warning (the highest level on a three-tier scale) has been issued along Madagascar's east and southwest coasts, and a yellow warning has been issued for the rest of the coastline. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in affected areas and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Meteo France La Reunion (French)
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)